128 Thundering Pines Ln · Reeds Spring, MO 65737

$210,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,058 sqft · Other · 32 Days on market

Built 2025 7,841 sqft lot $75/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Modern comfort meets easy Ozark living in Rainbow Hills! Built in 2025, this thoughtfully designed 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offers low-maintenance living with quality construction and energy efficiency in the heart of the Reeds Spring area. This newer construction home features impressive insulation values including R-38 ceilings, R-19 walls, and R-18 foundation stem walls, this home was built with comfort and efficiency in mind year-round. Inside, you'll love the warm yet neutral design palette, luxury vinyl plank and carpet, granite countertops, and smart mini split system for customizable comfort. The open layout creates an inviting flow between the living, kitchen, and dining spaces,

Key facts

• 7,841 sq ft lot
• Built 2025
• Listed 32 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $75 monthly fee

Exterior

• Parking: Private driveway; Gravel parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available; Electric water heater
• Home design: Single family residence; One-level
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear porch; Deck; Corner lot; Few trees; Level lot; Asphalt and gravel road frontage; Public maintained road; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Free-standing electric oven; Dishwasher; Microwave; Granite counters
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating (zoned); Zoned cooling
• Interior features: Granite counters; High-speed internet; Insulated double-pane windows; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-406 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $151k (28.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (32.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $142k (32.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 1.0% in Reeds Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#114 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Reeds Spring R-IV (rural): math 34% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #182 of 324 in MO (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 341 active listings in the ZIP; 191 units permitted in Stone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stone County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $141,779 (32.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.29%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-52,491
• Equity at exit: $39,123

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-72,258
• Equity at exit: $31,863

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65737

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 341
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,418 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$262 /mo · $3,150/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $-406

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,932

Max offer price $151,221

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $210,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-05
   days on market $210,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $210,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $210,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $210,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $210,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $210,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-05-07
   listed $210,000 Active 1491-char remark
10. 2025-09-12
    price $217,500
11. 2025-08-01
    listed $237,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,013
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$3,150
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,361
• − Management: −$1,361
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$8,681
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,083
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,791/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Reeds Spring R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2926160
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $42,158
• Composite: 32.06/100
• National rank: #5819
• State rank: #182 of 324 in MO

Livability — Reeds Spring

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #114
• US rank: #7148

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Reeds Spring, MO
• Population (ZIP): 8,279

Population outlook (Stone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,147 people
• By 2030: 26,405 · -6.2%
• By 2040: 22,762 · -19.1%
• By 2050: 19,706 · -30.0%
• By 2075: 14,742 · -47.6%
• By 2100: 10,832 · -61.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Stone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.4) · D 18.9% · R 80.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: -37.3pp · 2024: -61.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.4 2020: R+61.1 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+49.2 2008: R+37.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.17%
• Current HPI: 239.032
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-11.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $210,000 SOMO
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $217,500 SOMO
• 2025-08-01 Listed $237,900 SOMO

Property tax history

+14.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $175 · -82.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.