7521 Welcome Ave N

Brooklyn Park, MN 55443

$269,999F

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,616 sqft · Built 2008 · Townhouse · Active · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,020/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax + insurance: −$412
• HOA: −$305
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $-537/mo
• Annual: $-6,449/yr
• Cap rate: 3.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.53%
• DSCR: 0.62
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $75,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-537 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (35.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (25.2% below list).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $175k (35.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#50 in MN, #1,308 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Osseo Public School District (suburban): math 42% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #129 of 301 in MN (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 169 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $195k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.