1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
536 sqft ·
Built 1965
· Condo
· Active
· 33 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,822/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$3,278
Tax + insurance
−$664
HOA
−$833
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,013
Net cashflow
$-966/mo
Annual
$-11,589/yr
Cap rate
4.57%
Cash-on-cash
-6.17%
DSCR
0.73
1% rule
0.77%
Cash to close
$175,000
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $625k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-966 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $454k (27.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $482k (22.8% below list).
It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($606k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $454k (27.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
In year one you build about $30k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (4.1% local appreciation)).
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#126 in FL, #1,903 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, cost of living F.
Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 614 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
6 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 10317% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
Current owner paid $300k; list at $625k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($131k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
CashFlowRE · CFR-744KA73F4EPVYJ
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29