10387 Laurel Crest Trl

Conroe, TX 77378

$245,791D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,780 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 94 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,851/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,289
• Tax + insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$56
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $-83/mo
• Annual: $-996/yr
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.45%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $68,821

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $246k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-83 ($-996/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (6.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (24.7% below list).
• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $185k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Turner El (math 55% / reading 53%, grade C, #664 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 424 students, 66% FRL); Robert P Brabham Middle (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 1,117 students, 52% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 721 active listings in the ZIP; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.