10387 Laurel Crest Trl · Conroe, TX 77378

$245,791

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,780 sqft · Land · 94 Days on market

Built 2026 $138/sqft · at area comps Est $237k · at est. $56/mo HOA · 3% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +5.7/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This inviting, two-story home showcases a charming front porch that sets a warm tone. Inside, the open great room seamlessly flows into a kitchen equipped with an extended bar top, perfect for casual dining or entertaining. Upstairs, the spacious loft area offers versatile space for work or relaxation. The primary suite features a walk-in closet that balances functionality and comfort effortlessly. Ideal for families seeking a well-designed layout and thoughtful details throughout. See sales counselor for approximate timing required for move-in ready homes.

Key facts

• Granite countertops
• Woodmont cabinetry
• Breakfast bar

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• BREAKFAST BAR
• WOODMONT CABINETRY
• STORAGE UNDER THE STAIRS
• SMOOTH FAUX WOOD BLINDS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $246k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-83 ($-996/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (6.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (24.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Turner El (math 55% / reading 53%, grade C, #664 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 424 students, 66% FRL); Robert P Brabham Middle (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 1,117 students, 52% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 721 active listings in the ZIP; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $185,094 (24.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.45%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $236,505
• List price: $245,791
• Delta: 3.93%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-48,868
• Equity at exit: $36,648

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-64,160
• Equity at exit: $21,252

Cash invested: $68,821 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77378

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 721
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,851 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,289
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,174/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$56
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $-83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,956

Max offer price $231,131

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $56	-5% $-13	+0% $-83	+5% $-153	+10% $-222
Rent	-10% $-229	-5% $-156	+0% $-83	+5% $-10	+10% $63
Rate	-1.0pp $41	-0.5pp $-20	base $-83	+0.5pp $-147	+1.0pp $-211

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,448
• Closing costs: $7,374
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $56 · $672/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $245,791 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,791 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,791 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,791 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,791 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,791 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,791 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,791 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $245,791 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $245,791 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,791 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $245,791 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $245,791 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,791 Active 73 DOM
15. 2026-04-01
    price $245,791 563-char remark

    Show marketing remark (563 chars)

    This inviting, two-story home showcases a charming front porch that sets a warm tone. Inside, the open great room seamlessly flows into a kitchen equipped with an extended bar top, perfect for casual dining or entertaining. Upstairs, the spacious loft area offers versatile space for work or relaxation. The primary suite features a walk-in closet that balances functionality and comfort effortlessly. Ideal for families seeking a well-designed layout and thoughtful details throughout. See sales counselor for approximate timing required for move-in ready homes.

16. 2026-03-26
    listed $240,791 Active 563-char remark

    Show marketing remark (563 chars)

    This inviting, two-story home showcases a charming front porch that sets a warm tone. Inside, the open great room seamlessly flows into a kitchen equipped with an extended bar top, perfect for casual dining or entertaining. Upstairs, the spacious loft area offers versatile space for work or relaxation. The primary suite features a walk-in closet that balances functionality and comfort effortlessly. Ideal for families seeking a well-designed layout and thoughtful details throughout. See sales counselor for approximate timing required for move-in ready homes.

17. 2026-03-25
    price $245,791 1012-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1012 chars)

    KB HOME UNDER CONSTRUCTION - Welcome to 10387 Laurel Crest Trail, nestled in the desirable Grace Landing community and zoned to Willis ISD! This thoughtfully designed two-story home sits on a premium lot with no back neighbors and offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, 1 half bath, and a convenient attached 2-car garage. The open-concept layout is complemented by a beautifully appointed kitchen featuring stainless steel Whirlpool appliances, granite countertops, added breakfast bar, and Woodmont cabinetry for ample storage and style. Additional features include a storage under the stairs, 2" smooth faux wood blinds, front gutters, and gorgeous vinyl plank flooring in the main living area to enhance everyday living. The SmartKey entry door hardware provides added security and convenience. Step outside to the patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Don’t miss your opportunity to own this home that perfectly blends comfort, functionality, and modern design—schedule your showing today!

18. 2026-03-19
    listed $240,791 Active 1012-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1012 chars)

    KB HOME UNDER CONSTRUCTION - Welcome to 10387 Laurel Crest Trail, nestled in the desirable Grace Landing community and zoned to Willis ISD! This thoughtfully designed two-story home sits on a premium lot with no back neighbors and offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, 1 half bath, and a convenient attached 2-car garage. The open-concept layout is complemented by a beautifully appointed kitchen featuring stainless steel Whirlpool appliances, granite countertops, added breakfast bar, and Woodmont cabinetry for ample storage and style. Additional features include a storage under the stairs, 2" smooth faux wood blinds, front gutters, and gorgeous vinyl plank flooring in the main living area to enhance everyday living. The SmartKey entry door hardware provides added security and convenience. Step outside to the patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Don’t miss your opportunity to own this home that perfectly blends comfort, functionality, and modern design—schedule your showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,174 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,498 · $375/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,324/yr (+$277/mo · 283.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,211
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,768
• − Property taxes: −$1,174
• − Insurance: −$1,229
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,777
• − Management: −$1,777
• − HOA: −$672
• − Depreciation: −$7,150
• Taxable loss: −$5,336
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,281
• After-tax cash flow: $285/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,629
• Household income: $71,143
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.25%
• Current HPI: 261.9673
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+2.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $245,791 Zillow
• 2026-03-26 Listed $240,791 Zillow
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $245,791 HARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $240,791 HARMLS

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,174 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.