16-20 Winter St

Newton, MA 02464

$1,425,000B-

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,208 sqft · Built 1845 · MultiFamily · Active · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $18,313/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,473
• Tax + insurance: −$1,390
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,846
• Net cashflow: $5,604/mo
• Annual: $67,254/yr
• Cap rate: 11.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.86%
• DSCR: 1.75
• 1% rule: 1.29%
• Cash to close: $399,000

Investor read

• This is a 3 × 3-bed/1.2-bath units multifamily listed at $1.43M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($67k/yr) — positive. Per door: $2k/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($18k rent vs $1.43M).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.38M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.38M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($10k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#17 in MA, #746 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: amenities D-, cost of living F.
• Newton (urban): math 64% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #27 of 302 in MA (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1845 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,670 units permitted in Middlesex County in 2024 (2,611 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Middlesex County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $399k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$84k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 1.4% in Newton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $18,313/mo this rent would consume 208% of the median local household income ($106k/yr) (locally 131% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1845 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.