5 bd · 3.0 ba ·
1,755 sqft ·
Built 1954
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 161 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,589/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$944
Tax + insurance
−$175
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$334
Net cashflow
$136/mo
Annual
$1,633/yr
Cap rate
7.20%
Cash-on-cash
3.24%
DSCR
1.14
1% rule
0.88%
Cash to close
$50,400
Investor read
This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $136 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (11.7% below list).
It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 59/100 on livability (#120 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, crime F, commute F.
Las Cruces Public Schools (urban): math 42% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #5 of 29 in NM (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Conlee Elementary (422 students, 100% FRL); Lynn Middle (534 students, 100% FRL); Centennial High School (math 47% / reading 67%, grade C, #33 of 110 statewide, top 29%, 1,615 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 67% FRL track the district average.
Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 145 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 964 units permitted in Doña Ana County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $1,589/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($33k/yr) (locally 2590% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-74R2EBB1NJP8AJ
· Data 2 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29