1033 Gertman Hill Rd

McComb, MS 39648

$135,000D+

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,020 sqft · Built 1974 · SingleFamily · Pending · 76 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,447/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax + insurance: −$203
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $232/mo
• Annual: $2,789/yr
• Cap rate: 8.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.38%
• DSCR: 1.33
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $37,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $232 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $127k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#50 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• North Pike School District (town): math 25% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #69 of 130 in MS (top 53%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: North Pike Elementary School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #122 of 375 statewide, top 34%, 806 students, 100% FRL); North Pike Junior High School (math 26% / reading 24%, grade F, #99 of 179 statewide, top 55%, 353 students, 100% FRL); North Pike Senior High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #101 of 197 statewide, top 54%, 697 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 54% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 191 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pike County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 6.5% in McComb — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.