1033 Gertman Hill Rd · McComb, MS 39648

$135,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,020 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1974 0.50 ac lot Est $105k · 29% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This classic, 4 bedroom 2 1/2 bath brick home sits on a generous 0.5 acres and offers the perfect opportunity for buyers seeking space, comfort, and value. Built in 1974, this will maintain property feature solid construction and an expensive layout making it an ideal choice for homeowners looking to personalized and update a home to their own style. A long driveway leads to cover two-car carport, providing plenty of parking and easy access. Inside, the home offer a spacious floor plan with multiple living areas, large bedrooms and abundant storage all ton enjoy a peaceful screened in porch outback. While the property has not been modernized is strong foundation in generous square footage g

Key facts

• Screened in porch
• Spacious floor plan
• Brick home

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• LONG DRIVEWAY
• COVERED TWO-CAR CARPORT
• SPACIOUS FLOOR PLAN
• MULTIPLE LIVING AREAS
• SCREENED IN PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $232 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 6.5% in McComb — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#50 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• North Pike School District (town): math 25% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #69 of 130 in MS (top 53%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: North Pike Elementary School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #122 of 375 statewide, top 34%, 806 students, 100% FRL); North Pike Junior High School (math 26% / reading 24%, grade F, #99 of 179 statewide, top 55%, 353 students, 100% FRL); North Pike Senior High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #101 of 197 statewide, top 54%, 697 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 54% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 191 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pike County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.38%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $105,040
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
708 Dyson Dr	0.68mi	4/1.5	2,018 (-0%)	16mo	$65,000	$32	51
1073 Martin Luther King Dr	0.75mi	4/1.5	2,284 (+13%)	10mo	$119,500	$52	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-7,064
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $12,944
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39648

• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,447 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$147 /mo · $1,759/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $232

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,153

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $309	-5% $271	+0% $232	+5% $194	+10% $156
Rent	-10% $118	-5% $175	+0% $232	+5% $290	+10% $347
Rate	-1.0pp $300	-0.5pp $267	base $232	+0.5pp $197	+1.0pp $162

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-02-04
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-15
   listed $135,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,759 · $147/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,759 · $147/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,366
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,759
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,389
• − Management: −$1,389
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $664
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$159
• After-tax cash flow: $2,630/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Pike School District
• NCES district ID: 2803240
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $41,558
• Composite: 24.13/100
• National rank: #7748
• State rank: #69 of 130 in MS

Livability — McComb

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #8347

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 19,767

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,766 people
• By 2030: 37,874 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 35,743 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 33,276 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 26,799 · -30.9%
• By 2100: 18,562 · -52.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 64% White 32% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 51.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: 3.5pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+0.7 2012: D+7.6 2008: D+3.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.61%
• Current HPI: 92.2495
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-04 Pending — MLSU
• 2025-11-15 Listed $135,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+48.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,759 · +16.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.