24 Philadelphia

Shillington, PA 19607

$499,000B

30 bd · None ba · 5,304 sqft · Built 1900 · MultiFamily · Pending · 124 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $8,116/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,617
• Tax + insurance: −$607
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,704
• Net cashflow: $3,188/mo
• Annual: $38,258/yr
• Cap rate: 13.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.38%
• DSCR: 2.22
• 1% rule: 1.63%
• Cash to close: $139,720

Investor read

• This is a 4×1bd/1.0ba + 1×2bd/1.0ba units multifamily listed at $499k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($38k/yr) — positive. Per door: $638/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $499k).
• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($439k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $439k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#230 in PA, #2,007 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Governor Mifflin SD (suburban): math 31% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #325 of 539 in PA (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cumru El Sch (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #815 of 1,518 statewide, top 56%, 406 students, 56% FRL); Governor Mifflin Ms (math 18% / reading 51%, grade F, #328 of 512 statewide, top 65%, 629 students, 54% FRL); Governor Mifflin Shs (math 50% / reading 24%, grade F, #288 of 437 statewide, top 66%, 1,480 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 27% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 258 units permitted in Berks County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Berks County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $140k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 4.9% in Shillington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $8,116/mo this rent would consume 120% of the median local household income ($81k/yr) (locally 469% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.