1127 S Shawnee Dr

Apache Junction, AZ 85119

$119,000D-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 400 sqft · Built 1989 · Manufactured · Active · 245 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $846/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax + insurance: −$198
• HOA: −$302
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$178
• Net cashflow: $-456/mo
• Annual: $-5,468/yr
• Cap rate: 1.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.41%
• DSCR: 0.27
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $33,320

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $119k. Condition is rated average.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-456 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $53k (55.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $85k (28.9% below list).
• It's been on market 245 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $53k (55.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#70 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Apache Junction Unified District (4443) (suburban): math 15% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #195 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Four Peaks Elementary School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #898 of 1,109 statewide, top 83%, 498 students, 73% FRL); Cactus Canyon Junior High (math 14% / reading 19%, grade F, #151 of 218 statewide, top 70%, 702 students, 50% FRL); Apache Junction High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #267 of 381 statewide, top 72%, 999 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 36% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 595 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cap rate 1.7% vs local median 3.0% in Apache Junction — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 245 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 55% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: kitchen cabinets — slight wear
• Minor: bathroom fixtures — dated design