1127 S Shawnee Dr · Apache Junction, AZ 85119

$119,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 400 sqft · Manufactured · 223 Days on market

Manufactured home 55+ age-restricted Built 1989 Average condition 1,589 sqft lot $298/sqft · 11% below area Est $134k · 11% under $302/mo HOA · 36% of rent ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -3.2

Listing remarks

Affordable winter retreat in a land owned 55+ golf course community. Upgrades include new windows and replaced and upgraded plumbing! Solid surface flooring throughout! Furnishings are included, Spacious covered patio and laundry/shed with washer and dryer. Walking distance to the pool, spa and recreation center.

Key facts

• Upgraded plumbing
• Covered patio
• Laundry shed

Tags

• GOLF COURSE COMMUNITY
• NEW WINDOWS
• UPGRADED PLUMBING
• SOLID SURFACE FLOORING
• COVERED PATIO
• LAUNDRY SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $119k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-468 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $51k (57.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $83k (30.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $51k (57.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 1.6% vs local median 3.0% in Apache Junction — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#70 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Apache Junction Unified District (4443) (suburban): math 15% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #195 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Four Peaks Elementary School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #898 of 1,109 statewide, top 83%, 498 students, 73% FRL); Cactus Canyon Junior High (math 14% / reading 19%, grade F, #151 of 218 statewide, top 70%, 702 students, 50% FRL); Apache Junction High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #267 of 381 statewide, top 72%, 999 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 478 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 223 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 36% of rent.

Recommended offer $51,214 (57.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 223 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 57% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.87%
• DSCR: 0.25
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $134,000
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: -11.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1262 S Shawnee Dr	0.09mi	1/1.0	400 (0%)	1mo	$95,000	$238	94
1367 W Chesapeake Ave	0.12mi	1/1.5	400 (0%)	4mo	$130,000	$325	89
1311 W Chesapeake Dr	0.11mi	1/1.0	400 (0%)	12mo	$118,500	$296	85
2269 S Seminole Dr	0.31mi	1/1.0	400 (0%)	6mo	$210,000	$525	81
1344 W Inuit Ave	0.08mi	1/1.0	397 (-1%)	17mo	$173,500	$437	81
1185 W Klamath Ave	0.33mi	1/1.0	400 (0%)	8mo	$113,000	$283	78
1206 W Klamath Dr	0.33mi	1/1.0	409 (+2%)	6mo	$138,000	$337	76
2274 S Seminole Dr	0.31mi	1/1.0	386 (-4%)	6mo	$155,000	$402	75
2309 S Seminole Dr	0.30mi	1/2.0	386 (-4%)	6mo	$200,000	$518	72
1004 S Kiowa Cir	0.17mi	1/1.0	445 (+11%)	11mo	$85,000	$191	64
2072 W Klamath Ave	0.28mi	1/2.0	446 (+12%)	6mo	$170,000	$381	58
2058 S Walla Walla Cir	0.26mi	1/1.0	450 (+12%)	16mo	$130,000	$289	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -51.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.50×
• Total profit: $-50,099
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.58×
• Total profit: $-85,935
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 9 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.0 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $119,900 ($288/sqft)
• Median days on market: 280 d
• This list price: 44% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +16.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85119

• Home prices YoY: -33.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 478
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $830 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$149 /mo · $1,785/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$302
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$174
• Net cashflow: $-468

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,423

Max offer price $51,214

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-386	-5% $-427	+0% $-468	+5% $-510	+10% $-551
Rent	-10% $-534	-5% $-501	+0% $-468	+5% $-436	+10% $-403
Rate	-1.0pp $-409	-0.5pp $-438	base $-468	+0.5pp $-499	+1.0pp $-531

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
432 E 9th Ave Unit 6 Apache Junction, AZ	—	1.0	370	$975	$2.64	120d	1	0.39mi
432 E 9th Ave Unit 7 Apache Junction, AZ	—	1.0	370	$975	$2.64	19d	1	0.39mi
535 N Gold Dr Unit 5 Apache Junction, AZ	—	1.0	335	$950	$2.84	10d	1	1.36mi
225 S Grand Dr Unit 4 Apache Junction, AZ	—	1.0	347	$750	$2.16	27d	1	1.47mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot features: none listed
• HOA & community: Community association with quarterly feeAssociation covers water, sewer, trash, street maintenance and other servicesCommunity amenities include pool, heated spa, community spa, golf, pickleball, tennis courts, fitness center, community media room, guarded entry, and community laundry (coin-op)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 open parking spaces
• Security: Gated community with security guard
• Utilities: Private water company servicePublic sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/Mobile homeFee simple ownership
• Construction: Aluminum siding and wood frame constructionComposition roof
• Exterior features: Partial block fencingEast/West exposure

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwaveRefrigeratorDisposalGranite counters
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heatingElectric heatingHeat pump coolingCentral air conditioningSee remarks for additional cooling details
• Interior features: Granite countersRefrigeratorDisposal
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry (details in remarks)

HOA detail $302/mo · $3,624/yr

• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $119,000 Active 223 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $119,000 Active 222 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $119,000 Active 221 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $119,000 Active 220 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $119,000 Active 219 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 218 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 217 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $119,000 Active 216 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $119,000 Active 215 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $119,000 Active 214 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $119,000 Active 213 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $119,000 Active 212 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $119,000 Active 211 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $119,000 Active 205 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $119,000 Active 204 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $119,000 Active 203 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 200 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $119,000 Active 199 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $119,000 Active 198 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $119,000 Active 197 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $119,000 Active 196 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $119,000 Active 195 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $119,000 Active 194 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $119,000 Active 193 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $119,000 Active 192 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $119,000 Active 191 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $119,000 Active 190 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $119,000 Active 189 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $119,000 Active 188 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $119,000 Active 187 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $119,000 Active 186 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $119,000 Active 185 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $119,000 Active 184 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $119,000 Active 183 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $119,000 Active 182 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $119,000 Active 181 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $119,000 Active 180 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $119,000 Active 179 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $119,000 Active 178 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $119,000 Active 177 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $119,000 Active 175 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $119,000 Active 174 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $119,000 Active 173 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $119,000 Active 172 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 169 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $119,000 Active 168 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $119,000 Active 167 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $119,000 Active 166 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $119,000 Active 164 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $119,000 Active 162 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,963
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,785
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$797
• − Management: −$797
• − HOA: −$3,624
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable loss: −$7,762
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,863
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,758/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $2,000–$6,000 screening

A mobile home with average condition, requiring minor repairs and updates to kitchen and bathroom. The property is located in a golf course community, offering a good location for a winter retreat.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — slight wear
• Minor bathroom fixtures — dated design

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale replace kitchen countertops — modernizes kitchen ↑
• Resale update bathroom fixtures — modernizes bathroom ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 17/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Desert Vista Elementary School F AZ #729/1,109 Nat'l #33,158/41,679 Middle Cactus Canyon Junior High F AZ #151/218 Nat'l #12,406/14,009 High Apache Junction High School F AZ #267/381 Nat'l #15,534/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apache Junction Unified District (4443)
• NCES district ID: 0400790
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $44,930
• Composite: 15.34/100
• National rank: #9325
• State rank: #195 of 249 in AZ

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Apache Junction

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #11242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apache Junction, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 437,574 people
• City population: 56,611
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 25,420
• Household income: $71,585
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -138.19%
• Current HPI: 274.3808
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.57%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot features: none listed
• HOA & community: Community association with quarterly feeAssociation covers water, sewer, trash, street maintenance and other servicesCommunity amenities include pool, heated spa, community spa, golf, pickleball, tennis courts, fitness center, community media room, guarded entry, and community laundry (coin-op)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 open parking spaces
• Security: Gated community with security guard
• Utilities: Private water company servicePublic sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/Mobile homeFee simple ownership
• Construction: Aluminum siding and wood frame constructionComposition roof
• Exterior features: Partial block fencingEast/West exposure

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwaveRefrigeratorDisposalGranite counters
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heatingElectric heatingHeat pump coolingCentral air conditioningSee remarks for additional cooling details
• Interior features: Granite countersRefrigeratorDisposal
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry (details in remarks)

Price history

-1.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-08 Price Changed $119,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $120,500 ARMLS