1405 Little Creek Rd

Chester, MD 21619

$19,500D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 764 sqft · Built 1926 · SingleFamily · Active · 336 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,899/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$102
• Tax + insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $1,366/mo
• Annual: $16,387/yr
• Cap rate: 90.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 300.13%
• DSCR: 14.35
• 1% rule: 9.74%
• Cash to close: $5,460

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $20k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $20k).
• It's been on market 336 days — a 12% lower offer ($17k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $17k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $135 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $585 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#281 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Queen Anne'S County Public Schools (rural): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #7 of 24 in MD (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 320 units permitted in Queen Anne's County in 2024 (56 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 7 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 90.3% vs local median 2.2% in Chester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 336 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.