1405 Little Creek Rd · Chester, MD 21619

$19,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 764 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 336 Days on market

Built 1926 7,405 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 bed, 1 bath home located in Chester MD. The home is in need of updates and repairs before move in ready.

Key facts

• Spacious lot size
• 0.17-acre lot
• 7,405 sq ft lot

Tags

• 0.17-ACRE LOT
• SPACIOUS LOT SIZE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Fee simple ownership

Exterior

• Parking: Other parking type
• Utilities: Other water source
• Home design: Detached structure; Shingle roof; Aluminum siding; Estimated year built
• Construction: Aluminum siding construction; Shingle roof; Other foundation; Above-grade and below-grade other structures; Finished above-grade area (estimated) 764
• Exterior features: No tidal water

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Interior features: Estimated living area; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $20k).
• Recommended offer: $17k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 90.3% vs local median 2.2% in Chester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#281 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Queen Anne'S County Public Schools (rural): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #7 of 24 in MD (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 320 units permitted in Queen Anne's County in 2024 (56 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $135 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $585 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 336 days — a 12% lower offer ($17k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $17,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 336 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 9.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 90.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 300.13%
• DSCR: 14.35
• GRM: 0.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $307,892
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1007 Dominion Rd	0.48mi	2/1.0	832 (+9%)	22mo	$335,000	$403	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.36×
• Total profit: $83,844
• Equity at exit: $2,908

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 34.90×
• Total profit: $185,120
• Equity at exit: $1,686

Cash invested: $5,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21619

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 0.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,899 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$102
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$24 /mo · $292/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $1,366

Break-even live

Break-even rent $171

Max offer price $19,500

Occupancy floor 23%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,875
• Closing costs: $585
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 41 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $19,500 Active 336 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $19,500 Active 335 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $19,500 Active 334 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $19,500 Active 333 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $19,500 Active 331 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $19,500 Active 327 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $19,500 Active 326 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $19,500 Active 325 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $19,500 Active 322 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $19,500 Active 321 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $19,500 Active 320 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $19,500 Active 319 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $19,500 Active 318 DOM
14. 2025-07-17
    listed $19,500 Active
15. 2022-02-11
    soldstatus $27,000 Closed 106-char remark

    Show marketing remark (106 chars)

    2 bed, 1 bath home located in Chester MD. The home is in need of updates and repairs before move in ready.

16. 2021-08-21
    status Pending 106-char remark

    Show marketing remark (106 chars)

    2 bed, 1 bath home located in Chester MD. The home is in need of updates and repairs before move in ready.

17. 2021-07-14
    price $29,900 106-char remark

    Show marketing remark (106 chars)

    2 bed, 1 bath home located in Chester MD. The home is in need of updates and repairs before move in ready.

18. 2021-05-27
    price $32,900 106-char remark

    Show marketing remark (106 chars)

    2 bed, 1 bath home located in Chester MD. The home is in need of updates and repairs before move in ready.

19. 2021-04-28
    listed $36,900 Active 106-char remark

    Show marketing remark (106 chars)

    2 bed, 1 bath home located in Chester MD. The home is in need of updates and repairs before move in ready.

20. 2021-02-05
    status Pending
21. 2021-02-05
    historical
22. 2021-01-25
    price $36,900
23. 2020-12-08
    price $39,900
24. 2020-11-12
    listed $44,900 Active
25. 2020-11-04
    historical
26. 2020-04-23
    price $49,900
27. 2019-12-21
    price $54,900
28. 2019-10-16
    price $59,900
29. 2019-09-07
    price $69,900
30. 2019-06-28
    listed $79,900 Active
31. 2016-02-03
    historical
32. 2016-02-03
    historical
33. 2015-12-21
    price
34. 2015-12-03
    price
35. 2015-11-25
    price
36. 2015-11-07
    price
37. 2015-10-14
    listed Active
38. 2015-10-14
    listed $54,300
39. 2006-06-08
    historical
40. 2006-01-25
    listed
41. 2002-11-20
    soldstatus $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 51% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,790
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,092
• − Property taxes: −$292
• − Insurance: −$98
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,823
• − Management: −$1,823
• − Depreciation: −$567
• Taxable income: $17,094
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,103
• After-tax cash flow: $12,284/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Queen Anne'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400540
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -22.00%
• Median HH income: $84,577
• Composite: 29.86/100
• National rank: #6406
• State rank: #7 of 24 in MD

Livability — Chester

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #281
• US rank: #14440

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Queen Annes County · 6,152 people
• City population: 6,152
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 6,152
• Household income: $107,639
• Rent vs Own: 24.9% rent · 75.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 92.0

Population outlook (Queen Anne's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,149 people
• By 2030: 51,979 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 52,728 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 51,828 · +1.3%
• By 2075: 50,169 · -1.9%
• By 2100: 44,442 · -13.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Queen Anne's

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.8) · D 35.1% · R 62.9% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.7pp no change · 2008: -27.1pp · 2024: -27.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.8 2020: R+26.5 2016: R+36.1 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+27.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.51%
• Current HPI: 217.6726
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-77.1% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-17 Listed $19,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-02-11 Sold (MLS) $27,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-08-21 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-07-14 Price Changed $29,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-05-27 Price Changed $32,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-04-28 Listed $36,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-02-05 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-02-05 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-01-25 Price Changed $36,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-12-08 Price Changed $39,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-11-12 Listed $44,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-11-04 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-04-23 Price Changed $49,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-12-21 Price Changed $54,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-10-16 Price Changed $59,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-09-07 Price Changed $69,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-06-28 Listed $79,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-02-03 Delisted — MRIS
• 2016-02-03 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-12-21 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2015-12-03 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2015-11-25 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2015-11-07 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2015-10-14 Listed — MRIS
• 2015-10-14 Listed $54,300 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-06-08 Delisted — MRIS
• 2006-01-25 Listed — MRIS
• 2002-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,745 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.