Plan Chagall Plan

Forney, TX 75126

$384,990F

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,278 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 199 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,028/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,303
• Tax + insurance: −$857
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$636
• Net cashflow: $-768/mo
• Annual: $-9,217/yr
• Cap rate: 4.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.27%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $122,952

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $385k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-768 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $328k (14.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $303k (21.4% below list).
• It's been on market 199 days — a 12% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $303k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby El (math 37% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 682 students, 59% FRL); Brown Middle (math 29% / reading 39%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 673 students, 56% FRL); North Forney H S (math 32% / reading 45%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 2,502 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 26% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 3349 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 101d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 4→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 199 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.