Plan Chagall Plan · Forney, TX 75126

$384,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,278 sqft · SingleFamily · 199 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover Meraki-a community where nature, connection, and convenience come together. Just 21 miles from Dallas, Meraki will offer scenic trails, parks, a lakeside amenity center with pools and decks, and a planned on-site Forney ISD elementary school. Walkable streets, central greens, and vibrant public spaces will invite you to connect with neighbors and the outdoors. Life here inspires curiosity, well-being, and a true sense of belonging-all in a location close to schools, dining, and downtown Forney.

Key facts

• Central greens
• Walkable streets
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• LAKESIDE AMENITY CENTER
• WALKABLE STREETS
• CENTRAL GREENS
• VIBRANT PUBLIC SPACES

🏗️ New construction. The $384,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $439,113.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $385k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-768 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $328k (14.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $303k (21.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $303k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby El (math 37% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 682 students, 59% FRL); Brown Middle (math 29% / reading 39%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 673 students, 56% FRL); North Forney H S (math 32% / reading 45%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 2,502 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 26% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 3349 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 101d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 199 days — a 12% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 4→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $302,754 (21.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 199 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.27%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $439,113
• List price: $384,990
• Delta: -12.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2835 Standing Cypress St	0.40mi	4/3.0	2,426 (+6%)	1mo	$406,900	$168	70
2728 Railway St	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,313 (+2%)	3mo	$474,162	$205	60
2649 Brooklyn St	0.34mi	4/2.5	1,992 (-13%)	1mo	$355,900	$179	60
2223 Prickly Cactus Dr	0.47mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,168 (-5%)	4mo	$399,999	$185	60
2212 Prickly Cactus St	0.45mi	4/3.0	2,545 (+12%)	1mo	$417,900	$164	58
2643 Brooklyn St	0.37mi	4/3.0	2,594 (+14%)	2mo	$446,900	$172	58
2646 Brooklyn St	0.36mi	4/3.0	1,942 (-15%)	0mo	$329,900	$170	58
2406 Drummond St	0.52mi	4/3.0	2,527 (+11%)	0mo	$439,226	$174	57
Seaberry II Meraki PKWY	0.29mi	4/2.0	2,007 (-12%)	14mo	$409,900	$204	51
2651 Brooklyn St	0.42mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,984 (-13%)	2mo	$404,900	$204	50
3150 Blackfoot St	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,486 (+9%)	5mo	$439,000	$177	50
2819 Standing Cypress St	0.45mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,950 (-14%)	1mo	$355,900	$183	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-124,690
• Equity at exit: $65,473

10-year hold

• IRR: -44.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.54×
• Total profit: $-189,906
• Equity at exit: $37,966

Cash invested: $122,952 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 88 active · 33 under contract
• Months of supply: 33.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $458,680 ($195/sqft)
• Median days on market: 256 d
• This list price: 22% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -1.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 3349
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,028 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,303
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$549 /mo · $6,587/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$636
• Net cashflow: $-768

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,000

Max offer price $327,973

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-465	-5% $-616	+0% $-768	+5% $-920	+10% $-1,072
Rent	-10% $-1,007	-5% $-888	+0% $-768	+5% $-648	+10% $-529
Rate	-1.0pp $-547	-0.5pp $-656	base $-768	+0.5pp $-882	+1.0pp $-998

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,778
• Closing costs: $13,173
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17700 FM 548 Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2603	$3,300	$1.27	0d	1	0.27mi
5506 Hastings Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2247	$2,350	$1.05	100d	1	1.43mi
6076 Mojave Dr Forney, TX	5.0	4.0	2962	$2,595	$0.88	144d	1	1.44mi
6076 Mojave Dr Forney, TX	5.0	4.0	2962	$2,900	$0.98	184d	1	1.44mi
6075 Mojave Dr Forney, TX	5.0	3.0	2777	$2,595	$0.93	156d	1	1.46mi
1533 Lynx Loop Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	3100	$4,000	$1.29	0d	1	1.49mi
1533 Lynx Loop Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	3100	$3,900	$1.26	19d	1	1.49mi
5723 Roadhouse Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2121	$2,499	$1.18	94d	1	1.50mi
5734 Roadhouse Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2121	$2,350	$1.11	138d	1	1.50mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing price available (details not shown here)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Natural gasCentral air (electric)
• Home design: New construction plan: Plan ChagallAddress: McLendon Chisholm, TX
• Construction: New construction (Plan Chagall)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,278 (plan)

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan includes a kitchen (details not provided)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced-air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living area (plan)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $384,990 Active 199 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   pricedays on market $384,990 Active 198 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $409,990 Active 197 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $409,990 Active 196 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $409,990 Active 195 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $409,990 Active 193 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $409,990 Active 192 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $409,990 Active 191 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $409,990 Active 190 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $409,990 Active 189 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $409,990 Active 188 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $409,990 Active 187 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $409,990 Active 186 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $409,990 Active 185 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $409,990 Active 184 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $409,990 Active 183 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $409,990 Active 182 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $409,990 Active 181 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $409,990 Active 180 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $409,990 Active 179 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $409,990 Active 178 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $409,990 Active 177 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $409,990 Active 176 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $409,990 Active 175 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $409,990 Active 174 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $409,990 Active 173 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $409,990 Active 172 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $409,990 Active 171 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $409,990 Active 170 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $409,990 Active 169 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $409,990 Active 168 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $409,990 Active 167 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $409,990 Active 166 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $409,990 Active 165 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $409,990 Active 164 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $409,990 Active 163 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $409,990 Active 162 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $409,990 Active 161 DOM
39. 2026-09-29
    days on market $409,990 Active 159 DOM
40. 2026-09-28
    days on market $409,990 Active 158 DOM
41. 2026-09-27
    days on market $409,990 Active 157 DOM
42. 2026-09-26
    days on market $409,990 Active 156 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $409,990 Active 155 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $409,990 Active 154 DOM
45. 2026-09-23
    days on market $409,990 Active 153 DOM
46. 2026-09-22
    days on market $409,990 Active 152 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $409,990 Active 151 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $409,990 Active 150 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $409,990 Active 149 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $409,990 Active 148 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 4 d/yr ≥109°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,330
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,597
• − Property taxes: −$6,587
• − Insurance: −$3,698
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,906
• − Management: −$2,906
• − Depreciation: −$12,774
• Taxable loss: −$17,139
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,113
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,104/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It's move-in ready and would benefit from landscaping and smart home features to further increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and could attract more buyers ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and could increase rental value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Crosby El F TX #1,883/4,322 Nat'l #22,441/41,679 Middle Brown Middle F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009 High North Forney H S F TX #866/1,632 Nat'l #8,796/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 138,716 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing price available (details not shown here)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Natural gasCentral air (electric)
• Home design: New construction plan: Plan ChagallAddress: McLendon Chisholm, TX
• Construction: New construction (Plan Chagall)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,278 (plan)

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan includes a kitchen (details not provided)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced-air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living area (plan)