17110 Hall Shepperd Rd

Sheldon, TX 77049

$90,000B+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,060 sqft · Built 1963 · SingleFamily · Active · 214 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,638/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax + insurance: −$216
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $605/mo
• Annual: $7,265/yr
• Cap rate: 15.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.99%
• DSCR: 2.42
• 1% rule: 1.82%
• Cash to close: $25,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $90k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $605 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 214 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#605 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sheldon ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #746 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 157 active listings in the ZIP; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-1.2% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.3% vs local median 4.2% in Sheldon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 214 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.