17110 Hall Shepperd Rd · Sheldon, TX 77049

$90,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,060 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 214 Days on market

Built 1963 6,102 sqft lot $85/sqft · 46% below area Est $167k · 46% under ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3-Bed 1.-Bath next to new construction ready for your touch. May be sold with others, Ask about other homes in The White Portfolio. with MLS# 32399181, 78679808, 85075144, 35995781

Key facts

• 6,102 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1963

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $605 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.3% vs local median 4.2% in Sheldon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#605 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sheldon ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #746 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 157 active listings in the ZIP; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-1.2% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 214 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 214 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.99%
• DSCR: 2.42
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $167,104
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: -46.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17018 Blairwood Dr	0.32mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,136 (+7%)	4mo	$160,000	$141	65
17111 Folsom Dr	0.24mi	3/1.5	1,200 (+13%)	11mo	$195,000	$163	58
16907 Argyle Rd	0.14mi	3/1.0	1,206 (+14%)	16mo	$123,000	$102	55
16919 Faring Rd	0.17mi	3/1.5	1,198 (+13%)	21mo	$149,999	$125	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.2% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $26,223
• Equity at exit: $20,846

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.41×
• Total profit: $60,691
• Equity at exit: $21,150

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77049

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 157
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,638 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $605

Break-even live

Break-even rent $871

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $668	-5% $637	+0% $605	+5% $574	+10% $543
Rent	-10% $476	-5% $541	+0% $605	+5% $670	+10% $735
Rate	-1.0pp $651	-0.5pp $628	base $605	+0.5pp $582	+1.0pp $558

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 214 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 213 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 212 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 211 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 209 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 205 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 204 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $90,000 Active 203 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $90,000 Active 200 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $90,000 Active 199 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 198 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 197 DOM
13. 2026-03-24
    price $90,000 180-char remark

    Show marketing remark (180 chars)

    3-Bed 1.-Bath next to new construction ready for your touch. May be sold with others, Ask about other homes in The White Portfolio. with MLS# 32399181, 78679808, 85075144, 35995781

14. 2025-11-15
    listed $135,000 Active 180-char remark

    Show marketing remark (180 chars)

    3-Bed 1.-Bath next to new construction ready for your touch. May be sold with others, Ask about other homes in The White Portfolio. with MLS# 32399181, 78679808, 85075144, 35995781

15. 2003-11-24
    soldstatus
16. 1988-06-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 96% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,653
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$1,248
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,572
• − Management: −$1,572
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $6,252
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,500
• After-tax cash flow: $5,765/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sheldon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,443
• Composite: 19.5/100
• National rank: #8772
• State rank: #746 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sheldon

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #605
• US rank: #11469

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sheldon, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 40,418
• Household income: $62,971
• Rent vs Own: 32.1% rent · 67.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 993.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% Two or more races 32% Black 19% White 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 43% English-only · Spanish 54% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.20%
• Current HPI: 248.1111
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-33.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $90,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-15 Listed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2003-11-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-06-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,049 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.