803 Butler St

Metropolis, IL 62960

$110,000B-

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Built 1953 · SingleFamily · Active · 151 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,227/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax + insurance: −$147
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $245/mo
• Annual: $2,944/yr
• Cap rate: 8.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.56%
• DSCR: 1.43
• 1% rule: 1.12%
• Cash to close: $30,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $245 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#217 in IL, #4,091 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, commute F, employment D-.
• Massac UD 1 (rural): math 24% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #318 of 620 in IL (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Massac County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Massac County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 8 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask is 59% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $61k; list at $110k implies a 79% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 5.3% in Metropolis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.