616 Lease Land Rd

Clyde, TX 79510

$99,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Active · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $865/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax + insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$182
• Net cashflow: $-1/mo
• Annual: $-11/yr
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.04%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $27,720

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-11/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $99k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $86k (12.6% below list).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $86k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#498 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Coleman ISD (town): math 42% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #439 of 826 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Coleman El (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 339 students, 69% FRL).
• Market conditions: 132 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Coleman County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Coleman County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.2% in Clyde — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.