7018 Cottage Sq

Tyler, TX 75703

$315,900F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,657 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,426/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,935
• Tax + insurance: −$615
• HOA: −$19
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $-652/mo
• Annual: $-7,828/yr
• Cap rate: 4.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.58%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $103,318

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $316k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-652 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (13.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (23.2% below list).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($311k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $243k (23.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#147 in TX, #4,181 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, commute F.
• Tyler ISD (urban): math 39% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #449 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dr Bryan C Jack El (math 53% / reading 51%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 685 students, 46% FRL); Three Lakes Middle (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 873 students, 64% FRL); Tyler H S (math 26% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,228 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,164 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools at 66% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 649 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.