7018 Cottage Sq · Tyler, TX 75703

$315,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,657 sqft · SingleFamily · 19 Days on market

Built 2026 $19/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This beauty is luxury living with three bedrooms and two baths. This beautiful home features large secondary bedrooms with walk-in closets. Open living, dining, and kitchen provides abundant space without all the cost. The primary bedroom suite is fit for a king sized bed and features a large walk-in closet.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 19 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Henshaw Creek
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $230 (about $19.17/month)

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Home design: Single family detached residence; One story
• Construction: Brick and stone construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Wood fencing; New construction

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Disposal
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Pantry; Smoke detector(s)

🏗️ New construction. The $315,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $368,992.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $316k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-652 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (13.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (23.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $243k (23.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#147 in TX, #4,181 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, commute F.
• Tyler ISD (urban): math 39% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #449 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dr Bryan C Jack El (math 53% / reading 51%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 685 students, 46% FRL); Three Lakes Middle (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 873 students, 64% FRL); Tyler H S (math 26% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,228 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,164 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools at 66% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 649 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($311k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,619 (23.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.58%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $368,992
• List price: $315,900
• Delta: -14.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-108,401
• Equity at exit: $55,018

10-year hold

• IRR: -61.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.70×
• Total profit: $-175,174
• Equity at exit: $31,904

Cash invested: $103,318 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75703

• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 649
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,426 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,935
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$461 /mo · $5,535/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$19
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $-652

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,252

Max offer price $274,600

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,248
• Closing costs: $11,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2830 W Grande Blvd Tyler, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1170	$2,370	$2.03	13d	30	0.57mi
10801 Harvestwood Dr Tyler, TX	4.0	2.5	1964	$3,750	$1.91	13d	1	1.08mi
6622 Bendale Dr Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,695	$1.48	43d	1	1.22mi
6618 Bendale Dr Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,695	$1.48	43d	1	1.23mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $19 · $228/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-01
   listed $315,900 Active 309-char remark
2. 2026-02-20
   listed $315,900 Active 859-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,114
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,669
• − Property taxes: −$5,535
• − Insurance: −$1,845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,329
• − Management: −$2,329
• − HOA: −$228
• − Depreciation: −$10,734
• Taxable loss: −$14,555
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,493
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,335/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tyler ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,090
• Composite: 32.69/100
• National rank: #5650
• State rank: #449 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tyler

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #147
• US rank: #4181

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Smith County · 180,570 people
• City population: 127,842
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,039
• Household income: $79,194
• Rent vs Own: 42.9% rent · 57.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1585.0

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Black 17% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -218.79%
• Current HPI: 182.3842
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.95%
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — GTAR
• 2026-05-01 Listed $315,900 GTAR