2051 E Aris Dr

Gilbert, AZ 85298

$1,525,000D

5 bd · 5.0 ba · 4,150 sqft · Built 2015 · SingleFamily · Active · 62 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,345/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,997
• Tax + insurance: −$1,074
• HOA: −$248
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$912
• Net cashflow: $-5,887/mo
• Annual: $-70,645/yr
• Cap rate: 1.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.54%
• DSCR: 0.26
• 1% rule: 0.28%
• Cash to close: $427,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/5.0-bath single-family listed at $1.52M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6k ($-71k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $485k (68.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $435k (71.5% below list).
• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.43M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $435k (71.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $138k of equity ($11k loan paydown + $128k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#1 in AZ, #240 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) (suburban): math 49% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #31 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Knox Gifted Academy (math 90% / reading 97%, grade A+, #1 of 1,109 statewide, top 0%, 672 students, 6% FRL); Willie & Coy Payne Jr. High (math 47% / reading 53%, grade C, #26 of 218 statewide, top 12%, 1,143 students, 11% FRL); Perry High School (math 48% / reading 50%, grade D, #43 of 381 statewide, top 11%, 2,822 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools average 10% FRL vs 25% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 340 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$221k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.7% vs local median 3.2% in Gilbert — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($156k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 72% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.