2051 E Aris Dr · Gilbert, AZ 85298

$1,525,000

5 bd · 5.0 ba · 4,150 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 2015 0.48 ac lot $367/sqft · 8% below area Est $1889k · 19% under $248/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.6/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautiful 5 bedroom, 4 bath home located in the highly sought-after Legacy at Freeman Farms community in Gilbert. Step inside to discover a thoughtfully designed open floor plan, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The main living areas are enhanced by beautiful hardwood flooring, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere throughout. The expansive kitchen flows seamlessly into the great room, making it the heart of the home. In addition to the five spacious bedrooms, this home features a large bonus room and a dedicated office--perfect for remote work, a playroom, or a home gym. Outdoors, enjoy your own private retreat with a heated pool and spa, mature landscape, built in BBQ, trampoline. Car enthusiasts and those needing extra storage will appreciate the rare 4-car garage, offering plenty of room for vehicles, toys, and more.

Key facts

• 0.48 acre lot
• 4 garage spots
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/5.0-bath single-family listed at $1.52M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6k ($-71k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $485k (68.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $435k (71.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $435k (71.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.7% vs local median 3.2% in Gilbert — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#1 in AZ, #240 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) (suburban): math 49% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #31 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Knox Gifted Academy (math 90% / reading 97%, grade A+, #1 of 1,109 statewide, top 0%, 672 students, 6% FRL); Willie & Coy Payne Jr. High (math 47% / reading 53%, grade C, #26 of 218 statewide, top 12%, 1,143 students, 11% FRL); Perry High School (math 48% / reading 50%, grade D, #43 of 381 statewide, top 11%, 2,822 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools average 10% FRL vs 25% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 340 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($156k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $138k of equity ($11k loan paydown + $128k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$221k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.43M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $434,505 (71.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 72% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.28% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.54%
• DSCR: 0.26
• GRM: 29.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,889,199
• List price: $1,525,000
• Delta: -19.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2052 E Crescent Way	0.03mi	5/4.0	4,498 (+8%)	2mo	$1,850,000	$411	79
2086 E Mead Dr	0.12mi	5/4.5	4,235 (+2%)	13mo	$1,425,000	$336	78
2312 E Mead Dr	0.35mi	5/5.5	3,875 (-7%)	1mo	$1,850,000	$477	70
1652 E Powell Way	0.53mi	5/5.0	4,319 (+4%)	0mo	$2,131,370	$493	68
2094 E Aris Dr	0.06mi	4/4.0 (-1)	4,511 (+9%)	10mo	$1,375,000	$305	65
2068 E Tiffany Ct	0.44mi	5/4.5	4,622 (+11%)	1mo	$2,395,000	$518	58
2460 E Crescent Way	0.52mi	6/4.0 (+1)	4,065 (-2%)	12mo	$907,000	$223	54
2300 E Sanoque Ct	0.37mi	5/3.5	3,769 (-9%)	11mo	$1,325,000	$352	52
1542 E Blue Ridge Way	0.65mi	4/3.5 (-1)	4,065 (-2%)	6mo	$1,572,000	$387	50
2283 E Aris Dr	0.29mi	5/5.5	4,749 (+14%)	15mo	$1,660,000	$350	48
1460 E Crescent Way	0.74mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,998 (-4%)	6mo	$1,500,000	$375	43
1464 E Aris Dr	0.74mi	4/3.5 (-1)	4,047 (-2%)	13mo	$1,450,000	$358	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.36% appreciation · 4.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $293,963
• Equity at exit: $1,196,438

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.68×
• Total profit: $1,144,934
• Equity at exit: $2,411,960

Cash invested: $427,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85298

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 29.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,345 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,997
• Tax from tax record: −$439 /mo · $5,268/yr
• Insurance: −$635
• HOA: −$248
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$912
• Net cashflow: $-5,887

Break-even live

Break-even rent $11,797

Max offer price $485,020

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-5,024	-5% $-5,455	+0% $-5,887	+5% $-6,319	+10% $-6,750
Rent	-10% $-6,230	-5% $-6,059	+0% $-5,887	+5% $-5,715	+10% $-5,544
Rate	-1.0pp $-5,119	-0.5pp $-5,499	base $-5,887	+0.5pp $-6,282	+1.0pp $-6,684

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $381,250
• Closing costs: $45,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1277 E Tonto Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.5	2952	$4,000	$1.36	26d	1	0.97mi
1876 E Azalea Ct Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.5	3452	$6,500	$1.88	0d	1	1.24mi
1094 E Sourwood Dr Gilbert, AZ	5.0	3.0	3059	$2,799	$0.92	45d	1	1.38mi
4146 E Glacier Pl Chandler, AZ	5.0	3.0	3240	$3,299	$1.02	23d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $248 · $2,976/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,525,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,525,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,525,000 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,525,000 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,525,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,525,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $1,525,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,549,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,549,000 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,549,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,549,000 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,549,000 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,549,000 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,549,000 Active 42 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,549,000 Active 41 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    status Active 870-char remark

    Show marketing remark (870 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful 5 bedroom, 4 bath home located in the highly sought-after Legacy at Freeman Farms community in Gilbert. Step inside to discover a thoughtfully designed open floor plan, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The main living areas are enhanced by beautiful hardwood flooring, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere throughout. The expansive kitchen flows seamlessly into the great room, making it the heart of the home. In addition to the five spacious bedrooms, this home features a large bonus room and a dedicated office--perfect for remote work, a playroom, or a home gym. Outdoors, enjoy your own private retreat with a heated pool and spa, mature landscape, built in BBQ, trampoline. Car enthusiasts and those needing extra storage will appreciate the rare 4-car garage, offering plenty of room for vehicles, toys, and more.

17. 2026-05-07
    status Pending 870-char remark

    Show marketing remark (870 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful 5 bedroom, 4 bath home located in the highly sought-after Legacy at Freeman Farms community in Gilbert. Step inside to discover a thoughtfully designed open floor plan, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The main living areas are enhanced by beautiful hardwood flooring, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere throughout. The expansive kitchen flows seamlessly into the great room, making it the heart of the home. In addition to the five spacious bedrooms, this home features a large bonus room and a dedicated office--perfect for remote work, a playroom, or a home gym. Outdoors, enjoy your own private retreat with a heated pool and spa, mature landscape, built in BBQ, trampoline. Car enthusiasts and those needing extra storage will appreciate the rare 4-car garage, offering plenty of room for vehicles, toys, and more.

18. 2026-04-13
    listed $1,549,000 Active 870-char remark

    Show marketing remark (870 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful 5 bedroom, 4 bath home located in the highly sought-after Legacy at Freeman Farms community in Gilbert. Step inside to discover a thoughtfully designed open floor plan, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The main living areas are enhanced by beautiful hardwood flooring, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere throughout. The expansive kitchen flows seamlessly into the great room, making it the heart of the home. In addition to the five spacious bedrooms, this home features a large bonus room and a dedicated office--perfect for remote work, a playroom, or a home gym. Outdoors, enjoy your own private retreat with a heated pool and spa, mature landscape, built in BBQ, trampoline. Car enthusiasts and those needing extra storage will appreciate the rare 4-car garage, offering plenty of room for vehicles, toys, and more.

19. 2025-09-04
    historical $8,500
20. 2025-09-03
    historical
21. 2025-08-26
    price $8,500
22. 2025-08-21
    price $1,550,000
23. 2025-08-14
    listed $9,500
24. 2025-08-13
    status Active
25. 2025-08-01
    historical $9,500
26. 2025-08-01
    historical
27. 2025-07-01
    price $1,599,000
28. 2025-06-08
    listed $9,500
29. 2025-06-03
    price $1,650,000
30. 2025-05-20
    price $1,675,000
31. 2025-04-17
    listed $1,699,999 Active
32. 2024-08-19
    soldstatus $1,729,900 Closed
33. 2024-08-19
    soldstatus $1,729,900
34. 2024-07-26
    status Pending
35. 2024-05-26
    historical Contract Contingent on Buyer Sale
36. 2024-04-15
    price $1,749,900
37. 2024-03-20
    listed $1,849,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,268 · $439/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,065 · $839/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,797/yr (+$400/mo · 91.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 16% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,141
• − Mortgage interest: −$85,424
• − Property taxes: −$5,268
• − Insurance: −$7,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,171
• − Management: −$4,171
• − HOA: −$2,976
• − Depreciation: −$44,364
• Taxable loss: −$101,858
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$24,446
• After-tax cash flow: $-46,199/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chandler Unified District #80 (4242)
• NCES district ID: 0401870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,048
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2268
• State rank: #31 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Gilbert

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #240

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gilbert, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 281,769
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 44,114
• Household income: $156,425
• Rent vs Own: 8.9% rent · 91.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 173.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.36%
• Current HPI: 343.6932
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.31%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-16.3% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $1,549,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-04 Rental Removed $8,500 ARMLS
• 2025-09-03 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-08-26 Price Changed $8,500 ARMLS
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $1,550,000 ARMLS
• 2025-08-14 Listed for Rent $9,500 ARMLS
• 2025-08-13 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-08-01 Rental Removed $9,500 ARMLS
• 2025-08-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-07-01 Price Changed $1,599,000 ARMLS
• 2025-06-08 Listed for Rent $9,500 ARMLS
• 2025-06-03 Price Changed $1,650,000 ARMLS
• 2025-05-20 Price Changed $1,675,000 ARMLS
• 2025-04-17 Listed $1,699,999 ARMLS
• 2024-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $1,729,900 Public Records
• 2024-08-19 Sold (MLS) $1,729,900 ARMLS
• 2024-07-26 Pending — ARMLS
• 2024-05-26 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2024-04-15 Price Changed $1,749,900 ARMLS
• 2024-03-20 Listed $1,849,900 ARMLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,268 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.