9676 Jaguar Trl

Grape Creek, TX 76901

$350,900D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,749 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Pending · 225 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,946/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,840
• Tax + insurance: −$585
• HOA: −$21
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-909/mo
• Annual: $-10,908/yr
• Cap rate: 3.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.10%
• DSCR: 0.51
• 1% rule: 0.55%
• Cash to close: $98,252

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $351k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-909 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (37.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (44.6% below list).
• It's been on market 225 days — a 12% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $195k (44.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $38k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#545 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Grape Creek ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #675 of 826 in TX (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 331 active listings in the ZIP; 233 units permitted in Tom Green County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tom Green County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 3.2% vs local median 2.6% in Grape Creek — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 225 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.