9676 Jaguar Trl · Grape Creek, TX 76901

$350,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,749 sqft · SingleFamily · 225 Days on market

Built 2025 0.67 ac lot $201/sqft · 7% below area Est $377k · 7% under $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.5/30.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful new 4 bed 2 bath home on just over a half acre lot in Buffalo Heights West. The home features an open floor plan, split bedroom design and granite countertops. It is now possible to include a workshop and a fence with the purchase of this home all in one loan. The price of the home can be increased to include the cost of a workshop and fence under certain conditions. Inquire for more information! Take a look at the pictures and come see for yourself!

Key facts

• 0.67 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $351k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-909 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (37.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (44.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (44.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.2% vs local median 2.6% in Grape Creek — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#545 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Grape Creek ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #675 of 826 in TX (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 331 active listings in the ZIP; 233 units permitted in Tom Green County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $38k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Tom Green County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 225 days — a 12% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $194,560 (44.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 225 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.10%
• DSCR: 0.51
• GRM: 15.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $377,200
• List price: $350,900
• Delta: -6.97%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9676 Jaguar Trl	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,749 (0%)	0mo	$350,900	$201	100
9754 Jaguar Trl	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,792 (+2%)	0mo	$361,900	$202	90
9693 Jaguar Trl	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,802 (+3%)	2mo	$371,212	$206	83
9783 Jaguar Trl	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,644 (-6%)	2mo	$324,900	$198	82
9616 Grey Wolf Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,805 (+3%)	1mo	$392,900	$218	81
9769 Jaguar Trl	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,629 (-7%)	2mo	$321,900	$198	77
9671 Jaguar Trl	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,595 (-9%)	2mo	$315,900	$198	76
9730 Jaguar Trl	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,942 (+11%)	2mo	$408,660	$210	76
9098 Chital Ct	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,749 (0%)	0mo	$379,000	$217	76
9605 Jaguar Trl	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,599 (-9%)	2mo	$316,900	$198	74
3482 Buck Run	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,733 (-1%)	2mo	$344,000	$198	70
4072 Wildebeest Way Ln	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,009 (+15%)	1mo	$425,899	$212	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 5.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $138,852
• Equity at exit: $316,119

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.76×
• Total profit: $467,207
• Equity at exit: $681,722

Cash invested: $98,252 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76901

• Home prices YoY: 6.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 331
• Price-to-rent: 15.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,946 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,840
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$439 /mo · $5,264/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-909

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,096

Max offer price $219,371

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-666	-5% $-788	+0% $-909	+5% $-1,030	+10% $-1,151
Rent	-10% $-1,063	-5% $-986	+0% $-909	+5% $-832	+10% $-755
Rate	-1.0pp $-732	-0.5pp $-820	base $-909	+0.5pp $-1,000	+1.0pp $-1,092

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,725
• Closing costs: $10,527
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 1 events

1. 2025-10-14
   listed $350,900 Active 464-char remark

   Show marketing remark (464 chars)

   Beautiful new 4 bed 2 bath home on just over a half acre lot in Buffalo Heights West. The home features an open floor plan, split bedroom design and granite countertops. It is now possible to include a workshop and a fence with the purchase of this home all in one loan. The price of the home can be increased to include the cost of a workshop and fence under certain conditions. Inquire for more information! Take a look at the pictures and come see for yourself!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,347
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,656
• − Property taxes: −$5,264
• − Insurance: −$1,754
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,868
• − Management: −$1,868
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$10,208
• Taxable loss: −$17,522
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,205
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,702/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grape Creek ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821600
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $48,891
• Composite: 23.6/100
• National rank: #7849
• State rank: #675 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grape Creek

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #545
• US rank: #10581

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Tom Green County · 113,188 people
• Metro: San Angelo, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,831
• Household income: $69,450
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1034.0

Population outlook (Tom Green County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 135,110 people
• By 2030: 144,090 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 162,561 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 182,158 · +34.8%
• By 2075: 232,274 · +71.9%
• By 2100: 268,218 · +98.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 17% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tom Green

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.0) · D 25.5% · R 73.5% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.3pp toward R · 2008: -41.7pp · 2024: -48.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.0 2020: R+44.4 2016: R+47.9 2012: R+47.9 2008: R+41.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 47.96%
• Current HPI: 798.58
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.78%
• Metro: San Angelo, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-10-14 Listed $350,900 SAAR TX