16 Vail Rd #406

Vail, CO 81657

$87,500B+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 995 sqft · Built 2007 · Condo · Active · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,677/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$459
• Tax + insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$406
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$562
• Net cashflow: $1,104/mo
• Annual: $13,251/yr
• Cap rate: 21.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.09%
• DSCR: 3.41
• 1% rule: 3.06%
• Cash to close: $24,500

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $88k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $88k).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($605 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (8.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#76 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime D-, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Eagle County School District No. RE-50 (town): math 22% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #39 of 86 in CO (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 313 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 387 units permitted in Eagle County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Eagle County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 13 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $88k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (8.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 21.4% vs local median 0.5% in Vail — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($101k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.