16 Vail Rd #406 · Vail, CO 81657

$87,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 995 sqft · Condo public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2007 $406/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rare first time offering to public market 1 December ski week with 2 May weeks & 1 in June. Affordable one bedroom penthouse at the spot to be in Vail Village - The Sebastian Vail. Sleeps 4 + fireplace & massive deck all over 995 sqft. Amenities galore including Base Camp just steps to Gondola One, Frost Bar, Bloom Spa, Leonora Restaurant, Pool, Hot tubs, Gym, Valet parking, Room Service food delivery, Valet Parking. Call for a tour of this Deeded Fractional Ownership, owned in perpetuity.

Key facts

• Luxury amenities
• Year round pool
• Fitness center

Tags

• LUXURY AMENITIES
• YEAR ROUND POOL
• HOT TUBS
• FULL SERVICE SPA
• FITNESS CENTER
• OWNER'S LOUNGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned for multi-family
• Financial info: Annual association fee
• HOA & community: Annual association with on-site management; Association amenities include fitness center, front desk, pool and spa/hot tub

Exterior

• Utilities: Cable available; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Phone available; Sewer available; Trash service; Water available
• Home design: One story
• Construction: Metal roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Poured in place foundation
• Exterior features: Access to trails; Nearby golf; Fishing nearby; Near public transit; Shuttle service

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in gas oven; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: One bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Fireplace; Furnished

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $88k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $88k).
• Cap rate 21.4% vs local median 0.5% in Vail — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#76 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime D-, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Eagle County School District No. RE-50 (town): math 22% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #39 of 86 in CO (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 313 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 387 units permitted in Eagle County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($101k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($605 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (8.8% local appreciation)).
• Eagle County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (8.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 13 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $88k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.09%
• DSCR: 3.41
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.75% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 65.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.53×
• Total profit: $110,919
• Equity at exit: $71,001

10-year hold

• IRR: 60.5%
• Equity multiple: 12.04×
• Total profit: $270,533
• Equity at exit: $145,487

Cash invested: $24,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81657

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 313
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,677 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$459
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$109 /mo · $1,312/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$406
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$562
• Net cashflow: $1,104

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,279

Max offer price $87,500

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,875
• Closing costs: $2,625
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $406 · $4,872/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $87,500 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $87,500 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 694-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $87,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 14 d/yr ≥74°F today · 37 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,126
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,901
• − Property taxes: −$1,312
• − Insurance: −$438
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,570
• − Management: −$2,570
• − HOA: −$4,872
• − Depreciation: −$2,545
• Taxable income: $12,917
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,100
• After-tax cash flow: $10,151/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eagle County School District No. RE-50
• NCES district ID: 0803540
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $73,322
• Composite: 30.01/100
• National rank: #6360
• State rank: #39 of 86 in CO

Livability — Vail

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #7125

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vail, CO
• County: Eagle County · 42,178 people
• City population: 4,835
• Metro: Edwards, CO
• Population (ZIP): 4,835
• Household income: $100,573
• Rent vs Own: 38.6% rent · 61.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 262.0

Population outlook (Eagle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,837 people
• By 2030: 59,258 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 60,698 · +4.9%
• By 2050: 60,206 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 54,326 · -6.1%
• By 2100: 47,000 · -18.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Eagle

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.4) · D 61.0% · R 36.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 23.1pp · 2024: 24.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.4 2020: D+29.8 2016: D+19.9 2012: D+14.7 2008: D+23.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.75%
• Current HPI: 485.2983
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Edwards, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

-80.6% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $87,500 VMLS
• 2022-08-31 Sold (MLS) $55,000 VMLS
• 2022-08-13 Pending — VMLS
• 2021-04-30 Sold (MLS) $60,000 VMLS
• 2020-01-21 Listed $70,000 VMLS
• 2019-10-22 Listed $64,000 VMLS
• 2019-09-27 Sold (MLS) $180,000 VMLS
• 2019-07-01 Sold (MLS) $227,500 VMLS
• 2019-01-15 Listed $199,000 VMLS
• 2017-12-13 Listed $275,000 VMLS
• 2017-05-05 Sold (MLS) $180,000 VMLS
• 2016-08-26 Listed $219,000 VMLS
• 2016-03-17 Listed $139,000 VMLS
• 2014-12-17 Listed $225,000 VMLS
• 2013-08-05 Listed $325,000 VMLS
• 2013-08-02 Listed $395,000 VMLS
• 2013-05-31 Sold (MLS) $395,000 VMLS
• 2012-09-14 Listed $395,000 VMLS
• 2011-09-06 Listed $450,000 VMLS
• 2010-08-19 Listed $450,000 VMLS

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,393 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.