424 Mountain Oak Trl

Ball Ground, GA 30143

$274,900C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 1996 · Manufactured · Active · 132 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$220
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $313/mo
• Annual: $3,755/yr
• Cap rate: 7.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.88%
• DSCR: 1.22
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $76,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $313 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (9.1% below list).
• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $242k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#80 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pickens County (rural): math 35% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #59 of 174 in GA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 713 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 260 units permitted in Pickens County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 21 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $194k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 1.5% in Ball Ground — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.