424 Mountain Oak Trl · Ball Ground, GA 30143

$274,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 132 Days on market

Built 1996 1.63 ac lot $220/sqft · 7% below area Est $294k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If mountain living is calling your name, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in Jasper answers loud and clear. Featuring seasonal long-range mountain views, front and back decks, and a cozy gas fireplace, this home was made for relaxed North Georgia living. The kitchen shines with solid surface countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a gas range-because real cooks know gas is king. A generator offers extra peace of mind during mountain weather, while the comfortable layout makes everyday living easy. Solid surface countertops in kitchen and bathrooms. 10X12 Shed with loft. The seller has updated the windows, the roof and the Hvac in the last couple of years! Whether you're downsizing, investing, or looking for a peaceful escape, this home proves you don't have to give up style or views to keep life simple.

Key facts

• Cozy gas fireplace
• Front and back decks
• Gas range

Tags

• FRONT AND BACK DECKS
• COZY GAS FIREPLACE
• SOLID SURFACE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GAS RANGE
• GENERATOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $313 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (9.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 1.5% in Ball Ground — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#80 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pickens County (rural): math 35% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #59 of 174 in GA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 713 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 260 units permitted in Pickens County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 21 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $194k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $241,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.88%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $294,103
• List price: $274,900
• Delta: -6.53%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-24,722
• Equity at exit: $40,988

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $3,699
• Equity at exit: $23,768

Cash invested: $76,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30143

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Active inventory: 713
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,271/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $313

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,104

Max offer price $274,900

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,725
• Closing costs: $8,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
148 Holly Hill Rd Jasper, GA	3.0	2.0	1128	$2,500	$2.22	16d	1	0.57mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $274,900 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $274,900 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $274,900 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $274,900 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,000 Active 127 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,000 Active 126 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,000 Active 123 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,000 Active 122 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $289,000 Active 121 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $289,000 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,000 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,000 Active 116 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,000 Active 115 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,000 Active 114 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    price $289,000 814-char remark

    Show marketing remark (815 chars)

    If mountain living is calling your name, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in Jasper answers loud and clear. Featuring seasonal long-range mountain views, front and back decks, and a cozy gas fireplace, this home was made for relaxed North Georgia living. The kitchen shines with solid surface countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a gas range-because real cooks know gas is king. A generator offers extra peace of mind during mountain weather, while the comfortable layout makes everyday living easy. Solid surface countertops in kitchen and bathrooms. 10X12 Shed with loft. The seller has updated the windows, the roof and the Hvac in the last couple of years! Whether you're downsizing, investing, or looking for a peaceful escape, this home proves you don't have to give up style or views to keep life simple.

16. 2026-05-11
    price $289,000 815-char remark

    Show marketing remark (815 chars)

    If mountain living is calling your name, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in Jasper answers loud and clear. Featuring seasonal long-range mountain views, front and back decks, and a cozy gas fireplace, this home was made for relaxed North Georgia living. The kitchen shines with solid surface countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a gas range-because real cooks know gas is king. A generator offers extra peace of mind during mountain weather, while the comfortable layout makes everyday living easy. Solid surface countertops in kitchen and bathrooms. 10X12 Shed with loft. The seller has updated the windows, the roof and the Hvac in the last couple of years! Whether you're downsizing, investing, or looking for a peaceful escape, this home proves you don't have to give up style or views to keep life simple.

17. 2026-02-18
    price $295,000 815-char remark

    Show marketing remark (814 chars)

    If mountain living is calling your name, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in Jasper answers loud and clear. Featuring seasonal long-range mountain views, front and back decks, and a cozy gas fireplace, this home was made for relaxed North Georgia living. The kitchen shines with solid surface countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a gas range-because real cooks know gas is king. A generator offers extra peace of mind during mountain weather, while the comfortable layout makes everyday living easy. Solid surface countertops in kitchen and bathrooms. 10X12 Shed with loft. The seller has updated the windows, the roof and the Hvac in the last couple of years! Whether you're downsizing, investing, or looking for a peaceful escape, this home proves you don't have to give up style or views to keep life simple.

18. 2026-02-18
    price $295,000 814-char remark

    Show marketing remark (814 chars)

    If mountain living is calling your name, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in Jasper answers loud and clear. Featuring seasonal long-range mountain views, front and back decks, and a cozy gas fireplace, this home was made for relaxed North Georgia living. The kitchen shines with solid surface countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a gas range-because real cooks know gas is king. A generator offers extra peace of mind during mountain weather, while the comfortable layout makes everyday living easy. Solid surface countertops in kitchen and bathrooms. 10X12 Shed with loft. The seller has updated the windows, the roof and the Hvac in the last couple of years! Whether you're downsizing, investing, or looking for a peaceful escape, this home proves you don't have to give up style or views to keep life simple.

19. 2026-02-05
    listed $303,000 Active 814-char remark

    Show marketing remark (815 chars)

    If mountain living is calling your name, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in Jasper answers loud and clear. Featuring seasonal long-range mountain views, front and back decks, and a cozy gas fireplace, this home was made for relaxed North Georgia living. The kitchen shines with solid surface countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a gas range-because real cooks know gas is king. A generator offers extra peace of mind during mountain weather, while the comfortable layout makes everyday living easy. Solid surface countertops in kitchen and bathrooms. 10X12 Shed with loft. The seller has updated the windows, the roof and the Hvac in the last couple of years! Whether you're downsizing, investing, or looking for a peaceful escape, this home proves you don't have to give up style or views to keep life simple.

20. 2026-02-05
    listed $303,000 Active 815-char remark

    Show marketing remark (815 chars)

    If mountain living is calling your name, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in Jasper answers loud and clear. Featuring seasonal long-range mountain views, front and back decks, and a cozy gas fireplace, this home was made for relaxed North Georgia living. The kitchen shines with solid surface countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a gas range-because real cooks know gas is king. A generator offers extra peace of mind during mountain weather, while the comfortable layout makes everyday living easy. Solid surface countertops in kitchen and bathrooms. 10X12 Shed with loft. The seller has updated the windows, the roof and the Hvac in the last couple of years! Whether you're downsizing, investing, or looking for a peaceful escape, this home proves you don't have to give up style or views to keep life simple.

21. 2023-04-25
    soldstatus $194,000
22. 2023-04-24
    soldstatus $194,000 Closed
23. 2023-04-24
    soldstatus $194,000 Sold
24. 2023-04-24
    soldstatus $194,000 Sold
25. 2022-08-22
    status Pending
26. 2022-08-15
    historical Active Under Contract
27. 2022-08-14
    status Under Contract
28. 2022-08-14
    status Pending
29. 2022-07-15
    price $199,000
30. 2022-07-15
    price $199,000
31. 2022-07-15
    price $199,000
32. 2022-07-08
    price $207,900
33. 2022-07-08
    price $207,900
34. 2022-07-08
    price $207,900
35. 2022-07-01
    price $209,900
36. 2022-07-01
    price $209,900
37. 2022-07-01
    price $209,900
38. 2022-06-21
    status Back On Market
39. 2022-06-21
    status Active
40. 2022-06-21
    status Active
41. 2022-06-19
    historical Active Under Contract
42. 2022-06-19
    status Under Contract
43. 2022-06-19
    status Pending
44. 2022-06-14
    status Back On Market
45. 2022-06-14
    status Active
46. 2022-06-14
    status Active
47. 2022-06-14
    status Pending
48. 2022-06-07
    historical Active Under Contract
49. 2022-06-07
    status Under Contract
50. 2022-06-07
    status Pending

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,271 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,529 · $211/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,258/yr (+$105/mo · 99.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,399
• − Property taxes: −$1,271
• − Insurance: −$1,374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$7,997
• Taxable loss: −$841
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$202
• After-tax cash flow: $3,957/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pickens County
• NCES district ID: 1304110
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $53,760
• Composite: 30.72/100
• National rank: #6165
• State rank: #59 of 174 in GA

Livability — Ball Ground

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #80
• US rank: #6900

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 19,134
• Population (ZIP): 26,738

Population outlook (Pickens County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,161 people
• By 2030: 32,815 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 33,427 · +3.9%
• By 2050: 33,077 · +2.8%
• By 2075: 31,291 · -2.7%
• By 2100: 27,205 · -15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Pickens

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.8) · D 16.8% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.8pp toward R · 2008: -57.9pp · 2024: -65.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.8 2020: R+65.7 2016: R+69.2 2012: R+67.6 2008: R+57.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.27%
• Current HPI: 280.6731
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+1782.7% since first listed

78 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $289,000 NEGBOR
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $289,000 FMLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $295,000 FMLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $295,000 NEGBOR
• 2026-02-05 Listed $303,000 FMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $303,000 NEGBOR
• 2023-04-25 Sold (Public Records) $194,000 Public Records
• 2023-04-24 Sold (MLS) $194,000 GAMLS
• 2023-04-24 Sold (MLS) $194,000 NEGBOR
• 2023-04-24 Sold (MLS) $194,000 FMLS
• 2022-08-22 Pending — FMLS
• 2022-08-15 Contingent — FMLS
• 2022-08-14 Pending — GAMLS
• 2022-08-14 Pending — NEGBOR
• 2022-07-15 Price Changed $199,000 NEGBOR
• 2022-07-15 Price Changed $199,000 GAMLS
• 2022-07-15 Price Changed $199,000 FMLS
• 2022-07-08 Price Changed $207,900 NEGBOR
• 2022-07-08 Price Changed $207,900 GAMLS
• 2022-07-08 Price Changed $207,900 FMLS
• 2022-07-01 Price Changed $209,900 NEGBOR
• 2022-07-01 Price Changed $209,900 GAMLS
• 2022-07-01 Price Changed $209,900 FMLS
• 2022-06-21 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2022-06-21 Relisted — FMLS
• 2022-06-21 Relisted — NEGBOR
• 2022-06-19 Contingent — FMLS
• 2022-06-19 Pending — GAMLS
• 2022-06-19 Pending — NEGBOR
• 2022-06-14 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2022-06-14 Relisted — NEGBOR
• 2022-06-14 Relisted — FMLS
• 2022-06-14 Pending — FMLS
• 2022-06-07 Contingent — FMLS
• 2022-06-07 Pending — GAMLS
• 2022-06-07 Pending — NEGBOR
• 2022-06-02 Relisted — FMLS
• 2022-06-02 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2022-06-02 Relisted — NEGBOR
• 2022-06-02 Contingent — FMLS
• 2022-06-02 Pending — GAMLS
• 2022-06-01 Pending — NEGBOR
• 2022-05-30 Price Changed $214,900 NEGBOR
• 2022-05-30 Price Changed $214,900 FMLS
• 2022-05-30 Price Changed $214,900 GAMLS
• 2022-05-25 Price Changed $220,000 NEGBOR
• 2022-05-25 Price Changed $220,000 FMLS
• 2022-05-25 Relisted — FMLS
• 2022-05-25 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2022-05-25 Price Changed $220,000 GAMLS
• 2022-05-25 Relisted — NEGBOR
• 2022-05-19 Pending — FMLS
• 2022-05-18 Price Changed $235,000 NEGBOR
• 2022-05-18 Pending — NEGBOR
• 2022-05-18 Contingent — FMLS
• 2022-05-18 Pending — GAMLS
• 2022-05-18 Price Changed $235,000 FMLS
• 2022-05-18 Price Changed $235,000 GAMLS
• 2022-05-05 Listed $220,000 NEGBOR
• 2022-05-04 Listed $220,000 GAMLS
• 2022-05-04 Listed $220,000 FMLS
• 2017-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $81,800 Public Records
• 2017-05-03 Sold (MLS) $81,750 FMLS
• 2017-05-02 Sold (MLS) $81,750 GAMLS
• 2017-04-04 Pending — GAMLS
• 2017-03-23 Contingent — FMLS
• 2017-03-15 Price Changed $79,900 GAMLS
• 2017-02-23 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2017-02-23 Relisted — FMLS
• 2017-02-21 Pending — GAMLS
• 2017-02-21 Contingent — FMLS
• 2016-11-18 Price Changed $84,900 GAMLS
• 2016-11-18 Price Changed $84,900 FMLS
• 2016-11-10 Listed $89,900 GAMLS
• 2016-11-10 Listed $89,900 FMLS
• 2016-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 1998-09-10 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records
• 1995-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $15,350 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,271 · -6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.