174 Middle Island Rd

Medford, NY 11763

$450,000D+

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,056 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Active · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,757/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax + insurance: −$736
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$789
• Net cashflow: $-128/mo
• Annual: $-1,538/yr
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.22%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $126,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-128 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $427k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $376k (16.5% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $376k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#502 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Patchogue-Medford Union Free School District (suburban): math 83% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #73 of 590 in NY (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Eagle Elementary School (math 24% / reading 75%, grade D+, #1,057 of 2,108 statewide, top 51%, 603 students, 40% FRL); Oregon Middle School (reading 75%, 592 students, 54% FRL); Patchogue-Medford High School (math 89% / reading 67%, grade A-, #577 of 1,100 statewide, top 52%, 2,443 students, 53% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 76% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Patchogue-Medford Union Free School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 186 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 75% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.5% in Medford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($121k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.