5 bd · 1.5 ba ·
2,340 sqft ·
Built 1940
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 19 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,151/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,835
Tax + insurance
−$583
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$662
Net cashflow
$70/mo
Annual
$844/yr
Cap rate
6.53%
Cash-on-cash
0.86%
DSCR
1.04
1% rule
0.90%
Cash to close
$98,000
Investor read
This is a 5-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $350k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $70 ($844/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $315k (10.0% below list).
It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($345k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $315k (10.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 77/100 on livability (#187 in NY, #2,869 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
Syracuse City School District (urban): math 18% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #590 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Edward Smith K-8 School (math 13% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,816 of 2,108 statewide, top 86%, 710 students, 69% FRL); Expeditionary Learning Middle School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #611 of 729 statewide, top 88%, 170 students, 76% FRL); Nottingham High School (math 75% / reading 77%, grade A-, #616 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 1,226 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools at 75% FRL track the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 22% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Syracuse City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.2%/yr); 58 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $190k; list at $350k implies a 84% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 8.2% in Syracuse — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
At $3,151/mo this rent would consume 91% of the median local household income ($42k/yr) (locally 2307% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
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· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29