4167 Maes Rd

Ogemaw, MI 48661

$79,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 552 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Active · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,208/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax + insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $409/mo
• Annual: $4,903/yr
• Cap rate: 12.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.17%
• DSCR: 1.99
• 1% rule: 1.53%
• Cash to close: $22,120

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $79k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $409 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $79k).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $78k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• West Branch-Rose City Area Schools (rural): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #306 of 540 in MI (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP; 57 units permitted in Ogemaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ogemaw County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Kitchen cabinets — Cluttered and disorganized
• Major: Bathroom fixtures — Cluttered and disorganized
• Major: Exterior siding — Peeling and damaged
• Major: Flooring — Worn and uneven
• Major: Paint — Peeling and dirty
• Major: Windows — Old and may need replacement