4167 Maes Rd · Ogemaw, MI 48661

$79,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 552 sqft · SingleFamily · 29 Days on market

Built 1970 Poor condition 7,140 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very neat and clean 2 bedroom home with lots of updates! New laminate flooring, beautiful kitchen and large living room! This home has it all! Close to state land for great recreational activities including ORV and snowmobiling trails!! A 30x40 pole barn offers lots of storage for your "up north" toys! The beautiful kitchen has gorgeous counter tops and an island for eating space! Beautiful remolded bathroom has new flooring and new fixtures! This could make a great year round home or up north get-a-way!!

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Outdoor fire pit
• 7,140 sq ft lot

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• OUTDOOR FIRE PIT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in subdivision t22n / r1e; Directions: take ski park road to Maes Rd

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residential property
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot dimensions approximately 60 x 119

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating
• Interior features: Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry: other (unspecified)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $79k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $409 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• West Branch-Rose City Area Schools (rural): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #306 of 540 in MI (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP; 57 units permitted in Ogemaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ogemaw County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $77,815 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.17%
• DSCR: 1.99
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $13,241
• Equity at exit: $11,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $45,115
• Equity at exit: $6,830

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48661

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Active inventory: 104
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,208 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$99 /mo · $1,185/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $409

Break-even live

Break-even rent $691

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $79,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $79,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-20
    listed $79,000 Active
17. 2021-11-02
    soldstatus $55,000 520-char remark

    Show marketing remark (520 chars)

    Very neat and clean 2 bedroom home with lots of updates! New laminate flooring, beautiful kitchen and large living room! This home has it all! Close to state land for great recreational activities including ORV and snowmobiling trails!! A 30x40 pole barn offers lots of storage for your "up north" toys! The beautiful kitchen has gorgeous counter tops and an island for eating space! Beautiful remolded bathroom has new flooring and new fixtures! This could make a great year round home or up north get-a-way!!

18. 2021-11-02
    soldstatus $55,000 520-char remark

    Show marketing remark (520 chars)

    Very neat and clean 2 bedroom home with lots of updates! New laminate flooring, beautiful kitchen and large living room! This home has it all! Close to state land for great recreational activities including ORV and snowmobiling trails!! A 30x40 pole barn offers lots of storage for your "up north" toys! The beautiful kitchen has gorgeous counter tops and an island for eating space! Beautiful remolded bathroom has new flooring and new fixtures! This could make a great year round home or up north get-a-way!!

19. 2021-11-01
    listed $55,000 520-char remark

    Show marketing remark (520 chars)

    Very neat and clean 2 bedroom home with lots of updates! New laminate flooring, beautiful kitchen and large living room! This home has it all! Close to state land for great recreational activities including ORV and snowmobiling trails!! A 30x40 pole barn offers lots of storage for your "up north" toys! The beautiful kitchen has gorgeous counter tops and an island for eating space! Beautiful remolded bathroom has new flooring and new fixtures! This could make a great year round home or up north get-a-way!!

20. 2021-11-01
    listed $55,000 520-char remark

    Show marketing remark (520 chars)

    Very neat and clean 2 bedroom home with lots of updates! New laminate flooring, beautiful kitchen and large living room! This home has it all! Close to state land for great recreational activities including ORV and snowmobiling trails!! A 30x40 pole barn offers lots of storage for your "up north" toys! The beautiful kitchen has gorgeous counter tops and an island for eating space! Beautiful remolded bathroom has new flooring and new fixtures! This could make a great year round home or up north get-a-way!!

21. 2015-10-30
    soldstatus $30,000
22. 2015-10-30
    soldstatus $30,000
23. 2015-03-24
    listed $28,000
24. 2015-03-24
    listed $28,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,500
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$1,185
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,160
• − Management: −$1,160
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $3,876
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$930
• After-tax cash flow: $3,973/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and increase its value. Immediate attention to the exterior, interior, and HVAC systems is recommended.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen cabinets — Cluttered and disorganized
• Major Bathroom fixtures — Cluttered and disorganized
• Major Exterior siding — Peeling and damaged
• Major Flooring — Worn and uneven
• Major Paint — Peeling and dirty
• Major Windows — Old and may need replacement
• Major Foundation — Unstable and may need repair
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No visible signs of recent maintenance

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint and organize — Fresh paint and organization will improve both resale and rental value
• Both Replace exterior siding — New siding will improve curb appeal and increase value
• Both Replace flooring — New flooring will improve the living space and increase value
• Both Replace windows — New windows will improve energy efficiency and increase value
• Both Repair foundation — A stable foundation will improve the home's structural integrity and increase value
• Both Replace HVAC/mechanicals — Up-to-date HVAC will improve comfort and increase value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Cluttered and disorganized	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom fixtures · Cluttered and disorganized	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior siding · Peeling and damaged	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · Worn and uneven	Major	$15,000–50,000
Paint · Peeling and dirty	Major	$15,000–50,000
Windows · Old and may need replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Foundation · Unstable and may need repair	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No visible signs of recent maintenance	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 8 items		$120,000–400,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint and organize — Fresh paint and organization will improve both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Replace exterior siding — New siding will improve curb appeal and increase value ↑
• Both Replace flooring — New flooring will improve the living space and increase value ↑
• Both Replace windows — New windows will improve energy efficiency and increase value ↑
• Both Repair foundation — A stable foundation will improve the home's structural integrity and increase value ↑
• Both Replace HVAC/mechanicals — Up-to-date HVAC will improve comfort and increase value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Branch-Rose City Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2635850
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $38,145
• Composite: 29.15/100
• National rank: #6580
• State rank: #306 of 540 in MI

Livability — Ogemaw

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,744

Population outlook (Ogemaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,373 people
• By 2030: 18,348 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 16,176 · -16.5%
• By 2050: 14,294 · -26.2%
• By 2075: 11,280 · -41.8%
• By 2100: 8,942 · -53.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ogemaw

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.0) · D 28.4% · R 70.4% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.4pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.0 2020: R+40.1 2016: R+36.6 2012: R+6.2 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.99%
• Current HPI: 253.6665
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+182.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $79,000 WWMLS
• 2021-11-02 Sold (MLS) $55,000 REALCOMP
• 2021-11-02 Sold (MLS) $55,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-11-01 Listed $55,000 REALCOMP
• 2021-11-01 Listed $55,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-10-30 Sold (MLS) $30,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-10-30 Sold (MLS) $30,000 REALCOMP
• 2015-03-24 Listed $28,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-03-24 Listed $28,000 REALCOMP