413 N Central Ave

Hamlin, TX 79520

$80,509A-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,026 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Active · 641 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,290/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$422
• Tax + insurance: −$163
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $434/mo
• Annual: $5,209/yr
• Cap rate: 12.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.11%
• DSCR: 2.03
• 1% rule: 1.60%
• Cash to close: $22,543

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $81k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $434 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $81k).
• It's been on market 641 days — a 12% lower offer ($71k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $71k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($557 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (5.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#747 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Hamlin ISD (rural): math 26% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #666 of 826 in TX (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Jones County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jones County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (5.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 641 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.