3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,605 sqft ·
Built 1900
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 2 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,499/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$839
Tax + insurance
−$267
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$315
Net cashflow
$78/mo
Annual
$938/yr
Cap rate
6.88%
Cash-on-cash
2.09%
DSCR
1.09
1% rule
0.94%
Cash to close
$44,772
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $78 ($938/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (6.3% below list).
Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $150k (6.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 62/100 on livability (#876 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Rockford SD 205 (urban): math 12% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #533 of 620 in IL (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: C Henry Bloom Elem School (math 12% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,517 of 2,056 statewide, top 78%, 410 students, 0% FRL); Abraham Lincoln Middle School (math 3% / reading 7%, grade F, #636 of 665 statewide, top 98%, 699 students, 0% FRL); Rockford East High School (math 7% / reading 13%, grade F, #528 of 693 statewide, top 82%, 1,718 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 73% district-wide (73 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.9%/yr); 157 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $70k; list at $160k implies a 128% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
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· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29