57030 Central Church Rd

Varnado, LA 70426

$114,500C

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,166 sqft · Built 1999 · SingleFamily · Pending · 58 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,043/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$600
• Tax + insurance: −$84
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $139/mo
• Annual: $1,670/yr
• Cap rate: 7.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.21%
• DSCR: 1.23
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $32,060

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $114k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $139 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (8.9% below list).
• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($111k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $104k (8.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($792 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#354 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Washington Parish (rural): math 27% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #38 of 98 in LA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Thomas Elementary School (math 38% / reading 51%, grade F, #176 of 646 statewide, top 29%, 763 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 45% FRL vs 77% district-wide (32 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Washington Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 10 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $114k implies a 154% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.