219 Lowell Ave

Providence, RI 02909

$369,900D

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,351 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Pending · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,770/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax + insurance: −$381
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$582
• Net cashflow: $-132/mo
• Annual: $-1,585/yr
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.53%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $103,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $370k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-132 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $347k (6.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (25.1% below list).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($364k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $277k (25.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#2 in RI, #794 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-.
• Providence (urban): math 8% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #34 of 39 in RI (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: George J. West El. School (math 7% / reading 13%, grade F, #148 of 167 statewide, top 90%, 601 students, 84% FRL); Nathanael Greene Middle (math 10% / reading 23%, grade F, #37 of 57 statewide, top 64%, 808 students, 85% FRL); Central High School (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #53 of 58 statewide, top 96%, 1,302 students, 87% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 133 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 776 units permitted in Providence County in 2024 (229 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Providence County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $260k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 71% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.0% in Providence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,770/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($65k/yr) (locally 2000% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.