1430 Allens Ml

Cave Springs, AR 72718

$649,750D-

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,556 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 86 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,996/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,407
• Tax + insurance: −$617
• HOA: −$50
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$839
• Net cashflow: $-918/mo
• Annual: $-11,013/yr
• Cap rate: 4.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.05%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $181,930

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $650k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-918 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $488k (25.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $400k (38.5% below list).
• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($611k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $400k (38.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $69k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $65k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#41 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Bentonville School District (urban): math 59% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #3 of 238 in AR (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,359 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Benton County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $39k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $403k; list at $650k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$112k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.4% in Cave Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.