1430 Allens Ml · Cave Springs, AR 72718

$649,750

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,556 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 86 Days on market

Built 2022 9,583 sqft lot Est $608k · 7% over $50/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• ARV discount +4.4/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New Construction

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Split floor plan
• Spacious bonus room

Tags

• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• OVERSIZED KITCHEN ISLAND
• DOWNSTAIRS OFFICE
• SPACIOUS BONUS ROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• NATURAL GAS FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Annual association fee of $600; Community features: playground, pool, park, trails/paths, sidewalks, curbs, shopping, near hospital, near fire station, near schools

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; 2 covered spaces
• Security: Security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Electricity available; Fiber optic available; Natural gas available; Public water; Public sewer; Recycling collection
• Home design: Two-story; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and concrete construction; Architectural, metal and shingle roof
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Covered porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Gas cooktop; Microwave; Range hood; Plumbed for ice maker; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Tankless water heater
• Bedrooms: Bonus room; Library; Office
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Simulated wood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas) with ENERGY STAR qualified equipment; Central air
• Interior features: Attic; Built-in features; Ceiling fan(s); Granite counters; Pantry; Split bedrooms; Storage; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments; Double-pane windows; ENERGY STAR qualified windows; Drapes
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $650k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-918 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $488k (25.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $400k (38.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $400k (38.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.4% in Cave Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#41 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Bentonville School District (urban): math 59% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #3 of 238 in AR (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,359 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $69k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $65k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Benton County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$112k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($611k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $39k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $403k; list at $650k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $399,597 (38.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.05%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $608,328
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
816 Post Way	0.16mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,477 (-3%)	0mo	$615,000	$248	78
5900 S 67th St	0.37mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,473 (-3%)	0mo	$560,000	$226	70
1013 Charing Cross	0.51mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,531 (-1%)	0mo	$570,000	$225	65
807 Bellmara Cir	0.56mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,510 (-2%)	2mo	$581,000	$231	62
6201 Tumbler Rdg	0.54mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,403 (-6%)	1mo	$575,000	$239	57
5601 65th St	0.61mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,718 (+6%)	1mo	$595,000	$219	55
6414 S 63rd St	0.44mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,830 (+11%)	1mo	$707,000	$250	54
1425 S Hampton Xing	0.41mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,264 (-11%)	1mo	$529,000	$234	52
5603 Lakewood Dr	0.67mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,700 (+6%)	0mo	$649,900	$241	52
1010 Chancery Ln	0.50mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,857 (+12%)	2mo	$679,000	$238	50
6614 W Braebourne Dr	0.58mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,344 (-8%)	1mo	$575,000	$245	48
5706 W Lakewood Dr	0.64mi	5/4.0	2,938 (+15%)	2mo	$691,925	$236	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $295,225
• Equity at exit: $585,346

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.03×
• Total profit: $914,966
• Equity at exit: $1,262,321

Cash invested: $181,930 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72718

• Home prices YoY: 14.1%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 13.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,996 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,407
• Tax from tax record: −$346 /mo · $4,158/yr
• Insurance: −$271
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$839
• Net cashflow: $-918

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,158

Max offer price $487,628

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-550	-5% $-734	+0% $-918	+5% $-1,102	+10% $-1,286
Rent	-10% $-1,233	-5% $-1,076	+0% $-918	+5% $-760	+10% $-602
Rate	-1.0pp $-591	-0.5pp $-752	base $-918	+0.5pp $-1,086	+1.0pp $-1,257

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,438
• Closing costs: $19,492
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6502 W Hearth Falls Dr Unit 1221804P Rogers, AR	4.0	2.5	2443	$6,688	$2.74	16d	1	0.68mi
6508 W Stone Lake Dr Unit 1221824P Rogers, AR	4.0	2.5	2271	$7,860	$3.46	16d	1	0.75mi
5313 S Stone Bay Ct Rogers, AR	4.0	3.0	2110	$3,300	$1.56	16d	1	0.98mi
6613 W Valley View Rd Rogers, AR	4.0	2.5	2475	$3,000	$1.21	25d	1	1.10mi
6683 W Valley View Rd Rogers, AR	4.0	2.5	2477	$3,500	$1.41	25d	1	1.15mi
507 Ashwood St Lowell, AR	5.0	3.5	2352	$2,395	$1.02	15d	1	1.23mi
4608 W Quelinda Dr Rogers, AR	4.0	3.0	2859	$3,000	$1.05	25d	1	1.29mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Active
2. 2026-05-01
   historical
3. 2026-04-09
   price $649,750
4. 2026-03-14
   price $650,000
5. 2026-03-08
   price $674,900
6. 2026-02-27
   listed $689,000 Active
7. 2022-02-02
   soldstatus $403,075 Closed 16-char remark

   Show marketing remark (16 chars)

   New Construction

8. 2021-09-23
   historical 16-char remark

   Show marketing remark (16 chars)

   New Construction

9. 2021-02-14
   listed $403,075 16-char remark

   Show marketing remark (16 chars)

   New Construction

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,158 · $346/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,158 · $347/mo
• Expected delta: +$1/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,952
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,396
• − Property taxes: −$4,158
• − Insurance: −$3,249
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,836
• − Management: −$3,836
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$18,902
• Taxable loss: −$23,025
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,526
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,487/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bentonville School District
• NCES district ID: 0503060
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $66,721
• Composite: 51.85/100
• National rank: #1661
• State rank: #3 of 238 in AR

Livability — Cave Springs

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #41
• US rank: #6981

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cave Springs, AR
• City population: 5,528
• Population (ZIP): 5,528

Population outlook (Benton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 318,683 people
• By 2030: 353,481 · +10.9%
• By 2040: 425,280 · +33.4%
• By 2050: 497,239 · +56.0%
• By 2075: 662,114 · +107.8%
• By 2100: 776,431 · +143.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Two or more races 25% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Benton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.2% · R 62.1% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -36.5pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+34.9 2012: R+40.4 2008: R+36.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 41.26%
• Current HPI: 334.6594
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+61.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Relisted — NWARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Delisted — NWARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $649,750 NWARMLS
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $650,000 NWARMLS
• 2026-03-08 Price Changed $674,900 NWARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $689,000 NWARMLS
• 2022-02-02 Sold (MLS) $403,075 NWARMLS
• 2021-09-23 Delisted — NWARMLS
• 2021-02-14 Listed $403,075 NWARMLS

Property tax history

+41.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,158 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.