3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
999 sqft ·
Built 1940
· Other
· Active
· 159 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$908/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$302
Tax + insurance
−$46
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$191
Net cashflow
$369/mo
Annual
$4,433/yr
Cap rate
14.00%
Cash-on-cash
27.53%
DSCR
2.23
1% rule
1.58%
Cash to close
$16,100
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $58k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $369 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($908 rent vs $58k).
It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($51k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $51k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $398 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 67/100 on livability (#212 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
Mountain View-Birch Tree R-III (rural): math 41% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #158 of 324 in MO (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 53 units permitted in Howell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Howell County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 3.8% in Mountain View — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-77VRMW8PG50GTG
· Data 2 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29