628 Grassy Knob Rd

Lake Lure, NC 28139

$159,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Built 1995 · Manufactured · Active · 32 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,794/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax + insurance: −$151
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $432/mo
• Annual: $5,188/yr
• Cap rate: 9.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.65%
• DSCR: 1.52
• 1% rule: 1.13%
• Cash to close: $44,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $432 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $154k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#351 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Rutherford County Schools (rural): math 43% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #98 of 178 in NC (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pinnacle Elementary School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #835 of 1,410 statewide, top 62%, 234 students, 99% FRL); R-S Central High School (math 62% / reading 42%, grade D+, #292 of 535 statewide, top 56%, 758 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 60% district-wide (39 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 312 active listings in the ZIP; 193 units permitted in Rutherford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Rutherford County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 0.9% in Lake Lure — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.