628 Grassy Knob Rd · Lake Lure, NC 28139

$159,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1995 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor opportunity in the foothills of Rutherfordton! 628 Grassy Knob Rd features spacious bedrooms and kitchen, a cozy wood-burning stove, and an large backyard with deck, storage shed, and carport. Just minutes to downtown Rutherfordton’s local dining, shops, breweries, and courthouse square events. Close to outdoor and regional attractions including boating and beaches at Lake Lure, hiking and scenic views at Chimney Rock State Park, and equestrian events at Tryon International Equestrian Center. Ideal rental, flip, or long-term investment opportunity. Equitable interest / assignment of contract. Seller does not hold title. Sale subject to underlying agreement. Buyer to pe

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Carport
• Storage shed

Tags

• WOOD BURNING STOVE
• LARGE BACKYARD
• STORAGE SHED
• CARPORT
• SCENIC VIEWS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport
• Utilities: Well water; Septic system
• Home design: Single-family residential home; One story
• Construction: Site-built construction; Vinyl and wood exterior; Metal roof; No foundation details listed
• Exterior features: Shed(s) on the property; Dirt and paved road access; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: 10 total rooms; Wood burning stove fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $432 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 0.9% in Lake Lure — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#351 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Rutherford County Schools (rural): math 43% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #98 of 178 in NC (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pinnacle Elementary School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #835 of 1,410 statewide, top 62%, 234 students, 99% FRL); R-S Central High School (math 62% / reading 42%, grade D+, #292 of 535 statewide, top 56%, 758 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 60% district-wide (39 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 312 active listings in the ZIP; 193 units permitted in Rutherford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rutherford County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,230 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.65%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,728
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $36,788
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28139

• Home prices YoY: -21.6%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,794 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,022/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $432

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,247

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $159,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $159,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $165,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $169,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    listed $179,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,022 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,304 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$282/yr (+$24/mo · 27.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,532
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$1,022
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,723
• − Management: −$1,723
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $2,738
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$657
• After-tax cash flow: $4,531/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rutherford County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704080
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,490
• Composite: 36.11/100
• National rank: #4753
• State rank: #98 of 178 in NC

Livability — Lake Lure

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #351
• US rank: #13888

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,744
• Population (ZIP): 18,887

Population outlook (Rutherford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,695 people
• By 2030: 61,670 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 57,212 · -10.2%
• By 2050: 52,763 · -17.2%
• By 2075: 44,493 · -30.1%
• By 2100: 38,127 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 6% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Rutherford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.8) · D 25.8% · R 73.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: -31.8pp · 2024: -47.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.8 2020: R+45.8 2016: R+47.9 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+31.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.65%
• Current HPI: 249.7007
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $179,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,022 · +8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.