404 Second St

Fossil, OR 97830

$159,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,008 sqft · Built 1995 · Manufactured · Active · 101 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,288/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$277
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $-98/mo
• Annual: $-1,171/yr
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.62%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $44,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-98 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $143k (10.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (19.4% below list).
• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $129k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#138 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
• Fossil SD 21J (rural): math 36% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #45 of 183 in OR (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP.
• Wheeler County population projected at -37% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.