404 Second St · Fossil, OR 97830

$159,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,008 sqft · Manufactured public records · 99 Days on market

Built 1995 0.38 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rare opportunity to own two homes on one lot. The first home is a 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home located on a desirable corner lot with a bright, open floor plan and spacious living areas perfect for comfortable everyday living.The second home sits along Main Street and is a charming two-story historic fixer-upper full of character and ready for your vision. With some updates and TLC, this home could truly shine.Great potential for multi-generational living, rental income, or investment opportunity. Live in one home while renovating or renting the other.Bring your imagination—properties with this much opportunity don’t come along often! Schedule a showing today.

Key facts

• Historic fixer-upper
• Two homes on one lot
• Rental income

Tags

• TWO HOMES ON ONE LOT
• CORNER LOT
• HISTORIC FIXER-UPPER
• MULTI-GENERATIONAL LIVING
• RENTAL INCOME
• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-98 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $143k (10.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (19.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $129k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#138 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
• Fossil SD 21J (rural): math 36% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #45 of 183 in OR (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Wheeler County population projected at -37% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,808 (19.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.62%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.22% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $32,648
• Equity at exit: $92,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.31×
• Total profit: $103,245
• Equity at exit: $161,805

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97830

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,288 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$210 /mo · $2,521/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $-98

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,412

Max offer price $142,655

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $159,900 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,900 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,900 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $159,900 Active 86 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $159,900 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-03-11
    listed $159,900 Active 687-char remark

    Show marketing remark (687 chars)

    Rare opportunity to own two homes on one lot. The first home is a 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home located on a desirable corner lot with a bright, open floor plan and spacious living areas perfect for comfortable everyday living.The second home sits along Main Street and is a charming two-story historic fixer-upper full of character and ready for your vision. With some updates and TLC, this home could truly shine.Great potential for multi-generational living, rental income, or investment opportunity. Live in one home while renovating or renting the other.Bring your imagination—properties with this much opportunity don’t come along often! Schedule a showing today.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,521 · $210/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,521 · $210/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,457
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,521
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,237
• − Management: −$1,237
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$3,945
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$947
• After-tax cash flow: $-225/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fossil SD 21J
• NCES district ID: 4105250
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,090
• Composite: 43.8/100
• National rank: #6347
• State rank: #45 of 183 in OR

Livability — Fossil

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #8033

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fossil, OR
• Population (ZIP): 621

Population outlook (Wheeler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,195 people
• By 2030: 1,087 · -9.0%
• By 2040: 878 · -26.5%
• By 2050: 756 · -36.7%
• By 2075: 643 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 638 · -46.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wheeler

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.0) · D 24.3% · R 71.4% · Other 4.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.3pp toward R · 2008: -26.7pp · 2024: -47.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.0 2020: R+51.2 2016: R+54.3 2012: R+33.3 2008: R+26.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.22%
• Current HPI: 222.5504
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Listed $159,900 RMLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,521 · +12.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.