88 Christy Dr

Shelby, AL 35143

$69,900B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · Built 1994 · Manufactured · Pending · 72 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,219/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $480/mo
• Annual: $5,758/yr
• Cap rate: 14.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.42%
• DSCR: 2.31
• 1% rule: 1.74%
• Cash to close: $19,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $480 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $66k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#265 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Shelby County (suburban): math 30% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #16 of 129 in AL (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shelby Elementary School (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #142 of 627 statewide, top 25%, 209 students, 61% FRL); Columbiana Middle School (math 14% / reading 43%, grade F, #138 of 257 statewide, top 54%, 428 students, 63% FRL); Shelby County High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #70 of 305 statewide, top 27%, 584 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 26% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 987 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shelby County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 1.8% in Shelby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Moderate: Exterior siding — Weathered and needs repainting
• Moderate: Roof — Aged and may need replacement
• Major: Kitchen flooring — Worn and needs replacement
• Major: Kitchen cabinets — Dated and may need replacement
• Major: Bathroom fixtures — Dated and may need replacement
• Major: Dining room walls — Peeling paint and may need repainting