88 Christy Dr · Shelby, AL 35143

$69,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · Manufactured · 72 Days on market

Built 1994 Fair condition 0.50 ac lot ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This double wide mobile home comes partially furnished, 3 bedrooms 2 baths, established yard. Covered carport, laundry room. Move in ready. ON A LEASED LOT. Lease Fee $335.00 monthly * * * * * Seller will consider all written offers * * * * * Call today to have a look!

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1994

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $480 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 1.5% in Shelby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#265 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Shelby County (suburban): math 30% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #16 of 129 in AL (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 987 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shelby County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,706 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.42%
• DSCR: 2.31
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $19,253
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.87×
• Total profit: $56,192
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35143

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,219 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,048/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $480

Break-even live

Break-even rent $611

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $528	-5% $504	+0% $480	+5% $456	+10% $432
Rent	-10% $384	-5% $432	+0% $480	+5% $528	+10% $576
Rate	-1.0pp $515	-0.5pp $498	base $480	+0.5pp $462	+1.0pp $443

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $69,900 Pending 72 DOM
2. 2026-03-16
   listed $69,900 Active 282-char remark

   Show marketing remark (282 chars)

   This double wide mobile home comes partially furnished, 3 bedrooms 2 baths, established yard. Covered carport, laundry room. Move in ready. ON A LEASED LOT. Lease Fee $335.00 monthly * * * * * Seller will consider all written offers * * * * * Call today to have a look!

3. 2025-10-06
   price $69,900
4. 2025-09-20
   price $74,900
5. 2025-08-16
   price $79,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,626
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,048
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,170
• − Management: −$1,170
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $4,939
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,185
• After-tax cash flow: $4,573/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This double-wide mobile home requires moderate renovations, including painting, updating fixtures, and replacing worn-out cabinets and flooring. Upgrades can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Exterior siding — Weathered and needs repainting
• Moderate Roof — Aged and may need replacement
• Major Kitchen flooring — Worn and needs replacement
• Major Kitchen cabinets — Dated and may need replacement
• Major Bathroom fixtures — Dated and may need replacement
• Major Dining room walls — Peeling paint and may need repainting
• Major Bedroom walls — Peeling paint and may need repainting
• Major Living room walls — Peeling paint and may need repainting

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting exterior siding — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal
• Resale Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can improve interior appearance
• Resale Replacing kitchen cabinets — Modern cabinets can increase appeal and functionality
• Resale Replacing bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can increase appeal and functionality
• Both Upgrading lighting fixtures — Modern lighting can improve both appearance and energy efficiency
• Both Landscaping — Landscaping can improve curb appeal and increase property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Weathered and needs repainting	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Roof · Aged and may need replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Kitchen flooring · Worn and needs replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Kitchen cabinets · Dated and may need replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom fixtures · Dated and may need replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Dining room walls · Peeling paint and may need repainting	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bedroom walls · Peeling paint and may need repainting	Major	$15,000–50,000
Living room walls · Peeling paint and may need repainting	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 8 items		$96,000–330,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting exterior siding — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal ↑
• Resale Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can improve interior appearance ↑
• Resale Replacing kitchen cabinets — Modern cabinets can increase appeal and functionality ↑
• Resale Replacing bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can increase appeal and functionality ↑
• Both Upgrading lighting fixtures — Modern lighting can improve both appearance and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Landscaping — Landscaping can improve curb appeal and increase property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelby County
• NCES district ID: 0103030
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,672
• Composite: 39.29/100
• National rank: #3995
• State rank: #16 of 129 in AL

Livability — Shelby

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #265
• US rank: #18242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,966

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,024 people
• By 2030: 249,868 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 272,778 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +22.8%
• By 2075: 326,049 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 335,870 · +41.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Black 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Korean 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.9) · D 29.0% · R 69.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +12.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -40.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.9 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+50.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.25%
• Current HPI: 337.6659
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-12.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Listed $69,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $69,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-09-20 Price Changed $74,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-08-16 Price Changed $79,900 Greater Alabama MLS