115 Moonlit Lane Rd Unit 1-4

San Miguel, NM 88008

$772,400D-

12 bd · 8.0 ba · 3,850 sqft · Built 2026 · MultiFamily · Pending

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,715/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,051
• Tax + insurance: −$1,287
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,410
• Net cashflow: $-33/mo
• Annual: $-396/yr
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.18%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $216,272

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 3-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $772k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-33 ($-396/yr) — negative. Per door: $-8/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $768k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $672k (13.1% below list).
• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $672k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $23k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#332 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Gadsden Independent Schools (rural): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #21 of 29 in NM (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 95% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 384 active listings in the ZIP; 964 units permitted in Doña Ana County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $6,715/mo this rent would consume 109% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 127% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.