115 Moonlit Lane Rd Unit 1-4 · San Miguel, NM 88008

$772,400

12 bd · 8.0 ba · 3,850 sqft · MultiFamily

Built 2026 3,006 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.3/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Opportunity knocks! A truly unique community is now available for investing in southern Dona Ana County. Las Brisas in Santa Teresa will be a gated community of 61 quadruplexes, with a wide range of designs including contemporary, traditional, and southwestern styles, all of which are designed to blend seamlessly with the beautiful Santa Teresa landscape. The community will include two green space parks, solar lighting, and beautifully landscaped pathways. In designing your quadruplex, you will have the choice between 2 and 3-bedroom floor plans that can be mixed-and-matched across the 4 units. Each unit includes two bathrooms, stainless steel kitchen appliances, and a laundry room.

Key facts

• 3,006 sq ft lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 3-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $772k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-33 ($-396/yr) — negative. Per door: $-8/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $768k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $672k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $672k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#332 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Gadsden Independent Schools (rural): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #21 of 29 in NM (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 95% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 384 active listings in the ZIP; 964 units permitted in Doña Ana County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,715/mo this rent would consume 109% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 127% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $23k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $671,500 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.18%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-127,165
• Equity at exit: $115,167

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-113,030
• Equity at exit: $66,783

Cash invested: $216,272 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88008

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Active inventory: 384
• Price-to-rent: 38.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,715 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,051
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$966 /mo · $11,586/yr
• Insurance: −$322
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,410
• Net cashflow: $-33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,757

Max offer price $767,620

Occupancy floor 95%

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	3	2	$6,716
Total (4 units)			$6,715

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $193,100
• Closing costs: $23,172
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-12-23
   historical
2. 2025-12-22
   listed $772,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 7% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥100°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $80,580
• − Mortgage interest: −$43,266
• − Property taxes: −$11,586
• − Insurance: −$3,862
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,446
• − Management: −$6,446
• − Depreciation: −$22,470
• Taxable loss: −$13,497
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,239
• After-tax cash flow: $2,843/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gadsden Independent Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501080
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $28,461
• Composite: 21.6/100
• National rank: #8298
• State rank: #21 of 29 in NM

Livability — San Miguel

• Score: 46/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #26486

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Miguel, NM
• County: Dona Ana County · 144,044 people
• Metro: Las Cruces, NM
• Population (ZIP): 12,623
• Household income: $73,848
• Rent vs Own: 14.5% rent · 85.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 127.0

Population outlook (Doña Ana County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 219,177 people
• By 2030: 220,967 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 222,775 · +1.6%
• By 2050: 223,576 · +2.0%
• By 2075: 228,461 · +4.2%
• By 2100: 214,536 · -2.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 86% Two or more races 39% White 12% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 84%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 35% English-only · Spanish 63%

Political lean MEDSL · Doña Ana

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 53.8% · R 44.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.3 2016: D+18.0 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.58%
• Current HPI: 175.6955
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Las Cruces, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-23 Delisted — SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-12-22 Listed $772,400 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID