4000 Seaway Dr

Lansing, MI 48911

$194,000F

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,068 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Pending · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,311/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,017
• Tax + insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $-134/mo
• Annual: $-1,607/yr
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.96%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $54,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $194k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-134 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $170k (12.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (32.4% below list).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (32.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#94 in MI, #2,182 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Lansing Public School District (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #650 of 760 in MI (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.9%/yr); 143 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 98 units permitted in Eaton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Eaton County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 9 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $145k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.